A “growing contradiction” between the State’s climate and agricultural policy objectives has been highlighted in a major report on climate change and agriculture.
The study by the Institute of International and European Affairs (IIEA) and the Royal Dublin Society (RDS) suggests the planned expansion in food production, outlined in the Government's Food Wise 2025 strategy, runs counter to the goal of achieving a carbon neutral sector by 2050.
Farmers face significant changes to how they farm and use land with a reduced beef herd and more emphasis on forestry, if Ireland is to meet its 2030 climate change targets and avoid stiff financial penalties, the report warns.
While the burden of compliance does not fall exclusively on agriculture, the sector will be required to a make a contribution given its relatively high share of non-ETS emissions, which cover transport, buildings and agriculture but not power generation, the report said.
Currently, agriculture accounts for 40 per cent of these emissions.
The report, which includes inputs from several major stakeholders including Bord Bia and Teagasc, lays out the path to a more climate-smart approach to agriculture.
It also recommends investment to promote more carbon efficient dairy-beef systems, a greater use of on-farm renewables and accelerating the rate of afforestation.
The study sets out a number of emission scenarios facing Ireland stemming from the EU’s recent commitment to cut emissions by 40 per cent on 2005 levels by 2030.
In the most benign scenario, whereby Ireland is afforded a less stringent target of cutting emissions by 25 per cent alongside a substantial carbon credit for forestry, the State faces a significant challenge, involving an annual reduction in carbon emissions of 11 million tonnes, from the current level 46 million.
At the same time, the Government is targetting a near doubling of the value of Irish food exports by 2025 in the Food Wise strategy.
The relative contributions of each member state to the EU's overall emissions target is likely to be set out by the European Commission later this month.
The Government has been lobbying Brussels to have Ireland treated as a special case to reflect the importance of agriculture to the Irish economy.
The report noted the Irish beef and dairy sectors, which are relatively large for a developed country, were critically important to the rural economy. At the same time, there is substantially less land under forest than is the norm within the EU. Currently only about 11 per cent of land here is under forest compared to a European average of 42 per cent.
It said lifting EU milk quotas had “created an impetus” for dairy sector expansion, but increasingly stringent emissions reduction targets could potentially constrain this growth.
One of the central recommendations of the report is the adoption of a central auditing body to monitor the reduction in agricultural emissions and to drive to a more sustainable brand of agriculture.
“In this way Ireland’s good standing can be measured, validated and communicating internationally,” the report said.
The report said Ireland was in a “unique position globally” to lead the way in addressing emissions from agriculture, transport and buildings.
Promoting climate-smart agriculture projects in other less developed countries should be part of Ireland’s outward-facing diplomacy, it concluded.
“Current low milk prices and political shocks such as Brexit highlight the need for a more diverse, resilient and productive farming and land use sector,” director general of the IIEA Tom Arnold said.
“We believe that becoming a leader in climate smart agriculture will benefit the Irish agri-food industry while addressing our national climate change challenges. This will not be easy. It will require high level political commitment, a coherent whole-of -government policy, buy-in from farmers and their organizations, and innovative partnerships involving all actors,” he added.
