Kenny still has a mountain to climb for FG to win power

Fine Gael: Within days of the off in 2002, the Fine Gael election campaign had the smell of death about it, one that only became…

Fine Gael:Within days of the off in 2002, the Fine Gael election campaign had the smell of death about it, one that only became more pronounced as it went on.

Today, Fine Gael is in much better shape, though it faces a tough battle to recover all of the 23 seats lost in the 2002 nightmare if it is to win power.

Following Michael Noonan's departure as leader, Fine Gael entered into a period of reflection while it chose a replacement for the Limerick man.

Perhaps because the party had been so badly savaged, it managed, as it mulled on its choices, to avoid the bickering that had proven so destructive in the past.

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From the 1980s on, Fine Gael has had an anti-Garret wing, an anti-Dukes wing, an anti-Bruton wing, an anti-Noonan wing and, though they were usually polite, they were always vicious.

This time, however, the parliamentary party - battered to within an inch of its life - acted soberly and discreetly as it debated its choices.

Enda Kenny stood, as did Richard Bruton, Phil Hogan and Gay Mitchell. One of the more ambitious of the younger generation, Denis Naughten, thought about it, and decided against.

Kenny had been down this road before, having stood against Noonan in 2001 after John Bruton relinquished the role - an act which led to Kenny's banishment after Noonan's victory.

Following his own success, Kenny stressed the need for unity and travelled the length and breadth of the country to bind the wounds of a bleeding organisation.

Undoubtedly, he has been helped by circumstance. Undoubtedly, too, he has been successful on his own account. Before his election as leader, Kenny was regarded as likeable but a bit lazy; bright but a lightweight.

So far, he has dealt comprehensively with any questions about his work rate, regularly clocking up 20-hour days. Indeed, he is probably the first FG leader in decades who actually enjoys canvassing - which could in itself become an interesting factor in the campaign ahead.

In the Dáil, he has not been consistently impressive, though he has improved gradually, but he still frequently struggles to land punches on Taoiseach Bertie Ahern.

However, he has had his moments.

He particularly landed blows during last year's controversy about the release of a man convicted of statutory rape, where he voiced the fears of every parent with extraordinary credibility, particularly during a notable RTÉ Radio 1 interview.

To a lesser extent, he landed blows about the Health Service Executive's handling of the development of the PPARS computer system where he drove home a message of Governmental wastefulness of money.

Fine Gael has not, perhaps, managed to keep its brand stamped on this issue as much as it would like or claim.

At other times, he has shown quietly effective judgment: refusing, for instance, to put forward a candidate to run against Mary McAleese in any race for the Áras.

Later, he danced delicately around the citizenship referendum, successfully questioning the Government's handling of the referendum itself, while supporting its intent - a position that may not have been in tune with some liberal opinion, but certainly was in tune with the majority of the public.

Nevertheless, he has yet to convince a majority of voters that he has the mettle to be taoiseach, and this he must do over the next three weeks, particularly in major press conferences.

In particular, he must display a grasp of the economic challenges ahead - a grasp stronger than he has so far displayed, as evidenced most recently by his performance at the launch of a joint Fine Gael/Labour document.

His recent ardfheis speech, though, offering "a contract" to voters, has answered some of the questions positively for some of the electorate.

In September 2004, he began the work of creating a common platform with Labour's Pat Rabbitte when both men travelled to Belvedere House in Westmeath to create what became known as "the Mullingar accord".

For long the subject of Fianna Fáil derision, the accord has slowly germinated into something more real in recent months as the two parties hammered out agreed policies on health, crime, value for money in State spending, the economy, and people with learning disabilities.

In more recent weeks, they agreed a joint position on stamp duty following a wobble when the parties tried to hide clear divisions about when changes should be made.

Kenny has been much helped by Pat Rabbitte's determination to seek Labour conference backing in Tralee favouring a post-election alliance with Kenny, rather than with Fianna Fáil.

Now more than 30 years in politics, Kenny has developed the habit of reaching his targets and often beating them, as he showed particularly during the 2004 European and local elections.

The mountain facing Fine Gael is high. In 2002 it emerged with just 31 TDs. Since then, it has lost John Bruton, won a by-election, and attracted an Independent.

Most importantly, it did extraordinarily well in the 2004 European and local elections, a battle in which it could just as easily have lost places on councils.

The headlines, though, came from the extraordinary European Parliament result, where the party won five seats, even though three of its outgoing MEPs were not standing again.

Even on a bad day, Fine Gael should regain 10 seats though it must do far better than that it if is achieve power alongside Labour, even with the help of the Greens.

NO OF SEATS IN OUTGOING DÁIL:  32

NATIONAL SHARE OF VOTE 2002: 22.48%

Mark Hennessy

Mark Hennessy

Mark Hennessy is Ireland and Britain Editor with The Irish Times