Iraq:Saturday's attacks in Kerbala and Baghdad demonstrate once again that the US-led pacification campaign is failing, writes Michael Jansen.
Saturday's attacks in the Shia holy city of Kerbala and at the foot of al-Jadriya bridge in Baghdad have demonstrated once again that the US-led pacification campaign is failing.
It is estimated that 289 Iraqis were killed or wounded in these attacks, the majority at Kerbala. On Thursday, bombers targeted parliamentarians in the fortified Green Zone and blew the centre out of al-Sarafiya bridge across the meandering Tigris river which bisects the capital. Yesterday the bombers maintained the pressure by striking at a Shia market in the heart of the city.
The suicide bombing at the bus terminal in Kerbala showed that Shias remain vulnerable to attack wherever they happen to be.
The attempt on al-Jadirya bridge exacerbated fears that if the bombers stage successful operations against the remaining eight bridges, Baghdad would be divided between Shia neighbourhoods in the east and Sunni districts in the west.
Cutting the bridges could force Sunnis remaining in mixed areas in the east to take refuge in the west and Shias dwelling in the west to move east of the river.
This would complete the sectarian cleansing which began in February 2006 following the destruction of the golden dome of the Shia shrine at Samarra.
The bombings of parliament, the bridges and Kerbala were also calculated to deliver heavy blows to the sagging morale of US and Iraqi forces, the US-supported government of premier Nuri al-Maliki, and, above all, the deeply disillusioned Iraqi people.
The bombers appear to have three aims. The first is to sap the will of the US military, government and people in order to force the White House to pull out of Iraq. The second is to under-mine the readiness of the US-raised, trained and armed Iraqi security forces to carry on with the struggle against the insurgency. Finally, by repeatedly striking strategic targets, the bombers aim to demonstrate to Iraqis from all communities that the Maliki government can do nothing to protect them as they go about their daily routines or embark on pilgrimages.
The process of diminishing both the US and the Maliki government is accelerating the destabilisation of the country.
Angry Kerbala residents marched to the residence of the governor of the city and demanded his resignation after Saturday's attack. They even claimed that the US was involved in the bombing.
Governor Aqeel al-Khazaali argued that the pacification campaign in Baghdad and the crackdown on al-Qaeda by Sunni tribesmen in the western Anbar province have forced the bombers to seek targets elsewhere.
The Kerbala police fired on the demonstrators, killing four. The senior cleric in the city, Ayatollah Muhammad Taqi Mudarrisi, criticised the police for being trigger-happy and warned that such incidents could stir Shia on Shia violence.
Analysts now argue that security cannot be achieved by military means alone, but will require a political settlement between the Iraqi national resistance and the government, dominated by Shia fundamentalists and the Kurdish alliance.
These analysts say that until Sunnis, secularists, ex-Baathists and non-fundamentalist Shias have a stake in the post-war regime, they will continue to resist the US presence in the country and attack the government. Although Washington has been pressing the Maliki government to conciliate these elements for nearly a year, it has refused to do so.