Lebanese government brought to its knees by great divide

The split in Lebanon's cabinet has exacerbated the crisis, and made the government's survival unlikely, writes Mary Fitzgerald…

The split in Lebanon's cabinet has exacerbated the crisis, and made the government's survival unlikely, writes Mary Fitzgerald

When Lebanese prime minister Foaud Siniora broke down on national television as Israeli bombs pummelled his country earlier this week, there were those who cried with him and those who saw in his tears confirmation that Lebanon's fate would not be in its own hands.

The diminutive Siniora, a Sunni politician and friend of assassinated former prime minister Rafik Hariri, leads a government that was weak and riven with divisions long before Hizbullah stole over the southern border and captured two Israeli soldiers last week, sparking an unexpectedly harsh retaliation that has pounded the country's infrastructure and cost more than 250 lives. Two days before the crisis erupted Siniora was publicly warning against those who, he said, were trying to ratchet up internal tensions. "Tensions will not solve any problem. They won't even produce one loaf of bread," he declared.

What faces Lebanon now is more serious than anything he could have expected and his government's weaknesses could prove its undoing at a time when the country needs it most.

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Siniora has spoken movingly about Lebanon's plight, criticising the poor international response and accusing Israel of trying to destroy his country and its people. Many in Lebanon, however, worry that his cabinet is powerless as the situation escalates.

Despite calls for national unity in the face of the Israeli onslaught, the crisis has laid bare the government's divisions and brought it to the point of paralysis.

The cabinet includes two Hizbullah ministers but is dominated by politicians critical of Syria, the militant Shia group's long-standing supporter. Emergency cabinet sessions have been marked by bitter quarrelling over how to react to Hizbullah's actions, with some praising the group for its "heroic resistance" and others lambasting it for acting unilaterally.

A cabinet statement insisting the government did not condone Hizbullah's actions was rejected by elected representatives from Hizbullah and Amal, another Shia movement.

It is a divide that is mirrored within the Lebanese population, elements of which, while reserving most of their rage for Israel, believe Hizbullah is dragging the country deeper into an unwanted war.

As always in Lebanon, the split falls for the most part along sectarian lines, with most Shia supportive of Hizbullah while Sunnis, Christians and Druze largely deplore the militant group's actions.

Mindful of these divisions, Hizbullah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah has warned political opponents against "acting in a way that encourages the enemy against Lebanon".

President Bush has voiced concern that the fall-out from Israel's offensive could bring down Siniora's fragile government. He is not the only one. Most Lebanese fear the demise of a government whose formation after democratic elections last year was hailed as a significant step forward for a country tentatively emerging from years of Damascus-led control.

Many now worry their government will end up on the sidelines, with other more powerful outside forces stepping in.

Some have commented wryly that it was ever thus. As Siniora himself put it in a recent address to the nation: "Lebanon cannot grow and develop if the government is the last to know and yet the first to pay the price."

As the prime minister continues to meet with international officials in a desperate attempt to secure the ceasefire he and the Lebanese people crave, it remains to be seen what pressure his government can bring to achieve a cessation.

As the number of Lebanese civilian casualties climbs even further, the demand for an immediate ceasefire is one that unites the country's politicians, though some differ on the details.

While the pro-Syria president, Emile Lahoud, has praised Hizbullah and its leadership, declaring that "Lebanon will never surrender" when touring areas devastated by Israeli strikes, he has insisted a ceasefire must be reached without delay.

Druze MP and party leader Walid Jumblatt, who has criticised Hizbullah for picking a fight with Israel, also backs the ceasefire plan, with the proviso that negotiations are handled by the government.

Much of it could be taken out of the government's hands.

US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice is expected to visit the region soon, reportedly to try to establish a buffer zone in southern Lebanon.

There are also calls to bring in an international force to monitor the border area and keep Hizbullah's movements in check.

In the meantime, Israeli officials are talking of yet another week of bombardments, and the prospects of a ceasefire in the coming days look shaky.

Mr Siniora concluded his emergency address to the nation earlier this week on a hopeful note. "We are very proud of our country and we will overcome this crisis," he said.

"Lebanon will survive; Lebanon will survive; Lebanon will survive." Whether his government survives too looks increasingly unlikely.