Cork and Limerick/Shannon are to become major growth centres over the next 20 years under the forthcoming National Spatial Strategy, with the aim of counter-balancing the dominance of Dublin.
Galway, which has already seen explosive population growth over the past decade, and Waterford, where growth has been more sluggish, are also designated for expansion under the strategy, which was promised in December 1999.
A number of "gateway" towns outside the main cities are also to be designated, including Dundalk, Letterkenny, Sligo and a triangle formed by Athlone, Mullingar and Tullamore, where invesment will be targeted to give them "critical mass".
These would become the main centres of urban expansion outside the main cities, in the interest of achieving more balanced regional development and of deciding priorities for investment in infrastructure under the National Development Plan.
Partly to minimise political unrest, the draft proposes a number of other development "hubs" to complement the premier league "gateways".
These include Monaghan, Ballina/Castlebar, Tralee/Killarney, Ennis, Kilkenny, Mallow and Wexford. The fact that several of the designated "gateway" and "hub" towns would be located in Leinster is bound to be criticised on the basis that some are already becoming satellites of Dublin, with new housing for long-distance commuters to the capital.
The strategy, which is now in final draft form, is expected to go to Cabinet within the next two weeks after being "parked" twice - first because of the general election last May and then for the referendum on the Nice Treaty next Saturday.
Essentially, the task facing the small group of planners and officials in the Department of the Environment in drawing up the strategy over the past 2½ years was to identify specific growth centres which would be "saleable" both in planning and political terms.
According to one source, it was not meant to "see the light of day" until after the referendum due to fears that it would lead to uproar from towns overlooked by the planners. But the bones of the draft strategy were revealed yesterday by the Sunday Times.
Several criteria were used in making the choices, such as whether potential "gateway" towns had institutes of third-level education and good road and rail links (either existing or capable of being upgraded), as well as cultural, sporting and healthcare facilities. To succeed in terms of attracting inward invesment in competition with the Greater Dublin area, they will also need better access by air or sea, connections to the expanding natural gas grid and broadband telecommunications links to the wider world.
Under one of its most optimistic scenarios, the strategy envisages that Cork and Limerick/Shannon could ultimately rival Dublin by maximising the potential of their universities and international air and sea ports to reach a population in excess of 700,000.
One of the principal tasks facing the authors of the strategy was to ensure that the population share of the Greater Dublin area would not exceed 40 per cent of the total for the State, which is what would happen under a "business as usual" scenario.
The last time an attempt was made to curtail the growth of Dublin was the Buchanan report in 1969, which recommended that investment should be targeted primarily at the four smaller cities of Cork, Limerick, Galway and Waterford.
Regarding the latest effort, critics are likely to say that the danger inherent in designating so many growth centres - cities, "gateway" towns and "hubs" - is that none will develop the required critical mass.
