IRAQ: Yesterday's bombings in Basra took place at the heart of the Multinational Division area in south- eastern Iraq commanded by British forces.may be gearing up for a major confrontation with Iraqi insurgents, writesTom Clonan
The attacks appear to be part of a pattern on the part of Iraqi insurgents to exploit perceived weaknesses in the US-led coalition's deployment in central and southern Iraq.
Coinciding with these attacks in recent days has been the announcement of impending troop withdrawals from Iraq of Spanish, Honduran and Dominican troops.
Sustained attacks in the Multinational Division areas, along with these announcements, have required US forces to redeploy into these areas.
The redeployments, designed to reinforce and reinvigorate flagging coalition partners, have forced the US military to extend by four months the tours of duty of 20,000 US troops.
Among those units extended for service in Iraq is the US 1st Armoured Division. Known as "Old Ironsides", the US 1st Armoured is the oldest armoured division in the US military and has been based in Baghdad since Saddam was toppled one year ago.
The redeployment of this unit in recent days to Najaf is a critical development. The 1st Armoured relieves 2,500 infantry troops from the US 2nd Division, who had just arrived in Iraq with no recent combat experience. The replacement of these relatively inexperienced newcomers with a battle-hardened armoured division is an ominous development for Moqtada al-Sadr and the Mahdi militia based in Najaf.
Yesterday's bombings also coincided with the end of an informal ceasefire around Najaf declared by al-Sadr to coincide with the anniversary of the death of the prophet Muhammad on Monday and Tuesday. This development, along with yesterday's renewed fighting in Falluja, represents a hair-trigger environment for Centcom, the Coalition's central military command.
In this atmosphere and in light of repeated assertions by the US general staff that al-Sadr will be detained or killed and his militia destroyed, Najaf looks set to become the scene of a major confrontation between die-hard Shia insurgents and elite American troops. Such a confrontation will be seen by many senior commanders in Centcom as a litmus test for the resolve and prowess of the US military in Iraq in its efforts to forge a secure environment - particularly as the June 30th deadline approaches.
The tactics likely to be employed by the US 1st Armoured Division, should hostilities break out in Najaf, would be similar to those employed by the US 1st Marine Expeditionary Force in Falluja. Already, detailed and close reconnaissance of Mahdi militia positions and movements will have been undertaken by US sniper teams, forward air controllers and forward artillery observers. In the event of urban combat, the 1st Armoured would deploy its Abrams main battle tanks forward as fire bases along the main avenues of approach towards Najaf's city centre. Using the main armament of the Abrams, Rheinmetall 120mm cannons, US tank crews would use a variety of ammunition on Shia targets, including High Explosive Anti-Tank (HEAT) rounds and Armour Piercing M829 rounds equipped with depleted uranium penetrators.
Alongside main battle tanks and acting as mobile fire bases and troop transporters, the 1st Armoured would deploy its Bradley armoured fighting vehicles (AFVs). These AFVs are equipped with Tow missile systems and the 25mm M242 Bushmaster chain gun.
With a standard rate of fire of 200 rounds per minute, this weapon is particularly lethal in the urban environment and is capable of penetrating all forms of cover available to insurgents dispersed among the civilian population. Dismounted infantry accompanying these vehicles would provide the manoeuvre element of the advance and would seek out and destroy - in detail - any remaining Mahdi resistance.
This type of operation, based on superior firepower and the tactics of cover and movement and fire and manoeuvre, inevitably leads to high civilian casualties.
Centcom has attempted over the last week to 10 days to negotiate a settlement with al-Sadr and his militia. The deployment to Najaf of the 1st Armoured along with yesterday's escalation of violence in the Multinational Division areas will bring matters closer to a head for all involved in this stand-off.
Any attempt to enter the town by force will have dire consequences for al-Sadr and the civilian population of Najaf.
Dr Tom Clonan is a retired army officer. He is a Fellow of the US- based Inter University Seminar (IUS) on Armed Forces and Society