Despite Fianna Fáil replacing Fine Gael as the dominant force in 1997 and 2002, Cork North West rarely made headlines, but the entry of Minister of State Batt O'Keeffe and the inclusion of his Ballincollig base has made it one of the country's most intriguing contests.
With O'Keeffe joining sitting Fianna Fáil TDs Donal Moynihan and Michael Moynihan (not related), and former Fine Gael TD Michael Creed joining his running-mate from 2002, Gerard Murphy, who unseated him, it means four sitting and one ex-TD are vying for three seats.
Perhaps predictably dubbed the "group of death", it will see the mother of all fights for the support of 63,500 voters spread from the western fringes of Cork city to the Kerry border and from Limerick across the Boggeragh mountains south to Enniskeane in west Cork.
The spread of population has generally led to two TDs coming from south of the Boggeraghs, and while this was reversed in 2002, the addition of 13,000 votes in Ballincollig, despite the loss of 9,000 votes in nearby Inniscarra, suggests that two TDs will again come from the south.
In 2002, Michael Moynihan, from Kiskeam, won 27.15 per cent, and Donal Moynihan, from Ballyvourney, won 22.91 per cent, with Murphy, from Newmarket, taking 22.02 per cent to win the last seat by just 47 votes from Macroom-based Creed, who polled 20.06 per cent.
Overall, Fianna Fáil polled 50.06 per cent and Fine Gael saw its vote increase marginally to 42.08 per cent, but revising the figures to allow for the addition of Ballincollig and the exclusion of Inniscarra sees Fianna Fáil's 2002 vote go up to 51.4 per cent and Fine Gael's drop to 37.9 per cent.
A TNSmrbi poll for RTÉ's Raidio na Gaeltachta last month showed Creed winning 26 per cent of first preferences, followed by O'Keeffe on 20 per cent, with Michael Moynihan and Murphy both on 17 per cent, Donal Moynihan on 13 per cent and Labour's Martin Coughlan, from Macroom, on 8 per cent.
The poll did not include Caroline Robinson, from Templemartin, who is running for the Greens. She polled 699 votes in the 2004 local elections and will be hoping to double that this time out.
Most pundits believe that the poll may have somewhat over-estimated Creed and some believe that the three Fianna Fáilers may be much closer together, with Michael Moynihan (who had 10,540 first preferences in 2002) possibly outpolling O'Keeffe and Donal Moynihan being the back-marker.
O'Keeffe, who took 4,500 votes in Ballincollig in 2002 before becoming a Minister, will be hoping for an even better return, and while he will not win many votes west of Macroom, he is from Cullen and has siblings in Newmarket and Freemount and will take votes up north.
For Fine Gael, Murphy faces a real battle to hold his seat. While Creed will lose votes with the exclusion of Inniscarra, he is more likely than Murphy to pick up the Fine Gael vote in Ballincollig and, with Coughlan's transfers, he looks a good bet.
The only way Fine Gael could take a second seat is if there was a 5-6 per cent swing from Fianna Fáil to Fine Gael and Murphy managed to get clear of Michael Moynihan.
But that is a big ask and it looks like Creed will join O'Keeffe and Michael Moynihan back in the Dáil.
Health again seems to feature on the doorstep, but so also does jobs, with Macroom still awaiting a major replacement industry for GSI despite the Taoiseach announcing in April 2002 that drug company Elan would set up operations there. The state of rural roads as well as bypasses for Macroom and Charleville are also issues, as is concern over the difficulty in getting planning permission for one-off rural housing.
