Some 45 days after the votes in the general election were cast, talks finally got under way on Monday between negotiating teams from Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.
But what will they be actually negotiating? What are they trying to achieve?
Fianna Fáil’s emphatic rejection of acting Taoiseach Enda Kenny’s offer to join a partnership government has reduced the options for the 32nd Dáil to two: a minority government or an election.
And while Fianna Fáil continues to insist publicly (and to demand Fine Gael’s respect for its efforts) that it is seeking to form a minority government, senior figures privately concede the endeavour lacks political or mathematical reality. Which means it is up to Kenny.
Fianna Fáil is willing to facilitate this; the party has been privately and publicly clear about it. Micheál Martin's speech on Sunday at a Liam Lynch commemoration in Co Tipperary made this explicit. But there will be a price for its support. That is what the talks are about.
There are two strands to the negotiations. The first is to agree a “framework” in which the minority government and the main opposition party can manage their relationship – if not harmoniously, then at least productively.
Such an agreement would be complicated but not especially problematic. It would centre on the requirement to keep the opposition party (ie Fianna Fáil) informed on government business and legislative proposals, and to secure its consent for troublesome and controversial measures.
Ownership The second element to the talks will be more difficult. Fianna Fáil will not be party to any programme for government; nor will it facilitate the adoption of a programme to which it fundamentally objects.
Fianna Fáil sources put it like this: they don’t want “ownership” of a programme for government, but a Fine Gael government will still have to secure their “agreement” on it.
The distinction is lost on some people around Leinster House. To many in Fine Gael it sounds suspiciously like having their cake and eating it. You can see how they might come to that conclusion.
Establishing effective communication between the two sides will be the most important early task in the talks. Fianna Fáil will have to explain what it wants and what it is prepared to offer.
Sources familiar with the party’s preparations say that as well as agreement on specific policy issues, such as Irish Water, Fianna Fáil will want to agree clearly the nature of the “confidence and supply” agreement. This is an agreement whereby Martin pledges to back Kenny’s administration on confidence votes and finance Bills.
Fine Gael sources wonder why Fianna Fáil wants such influence on the government without being part of it. But they also accept that the ambition of a grand coalition is all but dead on this occasion.
As important as agreeing when Fianna Fáil will back the government will be agreeing when it does not. If the minority government is to be sustainable, it will have to accept that defeat in parliament does not necessarily mean it has lost the ability to govern.
Not everything, in other words, is a confidence vote. This would be a dramatic change for the Irish system, but it will be necessary if a minority government is going to work.
Scandinavian example Though it would be innovative for Ireland, there are plenty of places where minority governments function. Martin has been dropping the experiences of Scandinavian countries into his speeches, and party officials have been studying the academic literature on it.
Anticipating (incorrectly, as it happened) a minority government in the UK, in 2010 British academics at the London-based Institute for Government published a paper intended to act as a road map for politicians and civil servants. Copies of it have been circulating around Leinster House lately.
“A minority government,” it found, “cannot govern in a majoritarian way. It must accept the likelihood of frequent parliamentary defeats, and prepare the media and the public for them, so they are not seen as confidence issues. To avoid being blown off course, it must set out a clear strategy and set of long-term goals.”
Fine Gael sources are optimistic that all this can be wrapped up reasonably quickly, conscious that Kenny needs to show some momentum towards his election as taoiseach this week. “The job for today is to get the process moving,” said a senior Fine Gael figure yesterday.
After the failure of Kenny’s initiative before the weekend, achieving some progress is important. A third failure to be elected taoiseach would not necessarily be fatal to his ambitions, but he needs to show that he is making some progress towards a successful conclusion.
Fianna Fáil sources are a good deal more cautious, suggesting that two to three weeks is a more realistic time frame. That is partly because they are working this out as they go along. Then again, so is everybody else.
