A decisive point has finally been reached in the long process of government formation.
Last night, after weeks of negotiation and several days stuck on the reefs of Irish Water and water charges, there were strong indications that Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil will be able to overcome their differences.
If so, they can today or tomorrow finalise an agreement that will allow Enda Kenny to lead a new minority government of Fine Gael and Independents, facilitated by Fianna Fail’s abstention in the Dáil on the election of taoiseach, the appointment of his ministers, and on crucial votes of confidence and (money) supply.
We have been giddy with news of imminent breakthroughs too many times in recent weeks to take anything for granted on this occasion. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil negotiators last night would only say officially that they are “making progress”, and that developments yesterday were “significant”.
But there is a sense on all sides around Leinster House that this is it. If a deal isn’t firmed up this week, then it won’t ever be. And everyone knows where that leads.
We will all have to wait until any deal is signed and published - or leaked, I suppose - before we can assess it properly. But Fiach Kelly and Sarah Bardon in today's paper have much of the detail.
I think it’s fair to say is that if the detail that was emerging last night holds up today - involving a suspension of charges, a commission to examine the future of Irish Water and no commitment by Fianna Fáil to reactivate charges after the commission - then Micheál Martin has got most of what he wanted from the Irish Water section of the negotiations, and Enda Kenny has got very little.
Stephen Collins, incidentally, is very critical of the Fianna Fáil approach in today's Irish Times.
The Examiner reports that Simon Coveney is insisting Fine Gael has not caved in. But why were Enda Kenny and Michael Noonan doing the rounds of backbenchers last night drumming up support for the move?
Kenny’s justification, of course, is that he will get the bigger prize of government, but it’s a price that will stick in the craws of many Fine Gaelers. And might well end up shortening Enda Kenny’s second term as taoiseach even further.
The difficulty of putting this deal together though has another message. For all that commentators advised and their opponents demanded that Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil should form a government together, recent weeks must surely have given them pause for thought.
The level of antipathy, mistrust and mutual incomprehension between the two parties over the course of these talks suggests not alone that the future for the minority government experiment - and that is what it is - is uncertain, but that the Fine Gael-Fianna Fáil coalition so desired by many would have fallen apart as soon as it was put together.
As it is, unless the two parties can establish a better relationship, it is hard to see how the minority wheeze can last.
Meanwhile, Arthur Beesley and the political staff report on an important warning in the government's Stability Programme Update to the EU about the fiscal and economic landscape that will greet the new administration.
It’s this, not Irish Water, that will be the new government’s priority.
He’s back
If politics is an affliction that politicians and those who surround them can’t ever quite shake off, then Michael McDowell’s case is a chronic one. The former tánaiste and Progressive Democrats leader, former minister for justice, attorney general, TD, senator, party chairman, Fine Gaeler, referendum campaigner, commentator and titan of the Law Library will soon be back in Leinster House after a strong performance on the first count in the National University of Ireland panel in the Seanad elections.
Mr McDowell is one of the most able, and polarising, figures to inhabit Irish politics in recent decades. It will be fascinating to watch how he carves out a new role for himself in the Seanad, where, remember, the government will have nothing like a majority, and will rely on its arguments winning over independent senators to pass legislation. Asked recently why he was running, McDowell replied only half in jest that he was bored. The new Seanad will certainly be less boring for his presence.
Also noteworthy is the achievement of Ronan Mullen in topping the poll (and so beating McDowell) on the same panel. Mullen is best known for his conservative and pro-life views, opposing both the marriage referendum and the X case legislation -- for which he endures savage abuse from some quarters on social media. But he has demonstrated that there are many NUI graduates at least who either share his views, or admire him for standing up for them.
The President’s daughter, Alice Mary Higgins, is in with a shout to take the last seat.
Over at the count for the Trinity seats David Norris has taken the first seat while Ivana Bacik will follow him. There'll be a dogfight for the last seat, while counting will continue on the other Seanad panels all day. Our reports are here and here, with coverage throughout the day here.
