Dublin’s view is this is May’s problem.
The fallout from the collapse of the UK's agreement with the EU to clear the way for the second phase of the Brexit negotiations continued in Brussels, Belfast and London on Tuesday.
But there were few discernible attempts to move things forward. In Dublin, the Government reiterated its position that the British had to offer cast-iron guarantees on the border; the ball is in Theresa May’s court now, the Taoiseach told the Dáil.
Ministers were told to maintain a conciliatory tone in their public comments, but there was no softening of the line. Despite the DUP’s incandescent reaction on Monday, Dublin’s position remained the same. This is London’s problem. It’s the British who want to move on to phase two. We had a deal. They couldn’t fulfil their side of it. So it’s up to them to fix it.
In the background there were admissions that a new version of Monday’s draft – perhaps including a declaration that the constitutional position of the North would be unaffected by any post-Brexit deal – could be considered. Though Dublin will not entertain a weakening of the assurances on the Border contained in the draft it still maintains the UK agreed on Monday.
There have been warnings for months that the lack of unity in London would make negotiating with the British difficult
In Brussels, there has long been a sense that the inconsistent management of Brexit is the result of British political rivalries and tensions playing themselves out in public. Two themes dominate this process: Mrs May’s weakness and the uncertainty over what exactly is the UK’s preferred destination in the Brexit talks. Dublin has always had a closer and more sympathetic understanding of British politics. But, after the chaos of Monday, the Brussels view is gaining ground here.
Incredulity
It seems incredible that, 18 months after the Brexit vote, the British government has not spelled out what exactly it wants from the negotiations. Yet that remains the case. That Brussels and Dublin have become accustomed to the situation has not blunted their incredulity at it. They have long since discarded the notion that British ambiguity was some sort of devilishly clever negotiating and political strategy, and concluded it is because the British government is incapable of agreeing exactly what it is that it wants and is trying to achieve.
There have been warnings for months that the lack of unity in London would make negotiating with the British difficult. That view has now hardened that concluding a deal with this British government may be impossible. Irish Government officials still shake their heads at the fact that the British government agreed a text, and then found out that it wasn't in a position to agree it. To a country that has always viewed the British government – whatever its disposition, benign or not – as a ruthless and efficient machine, this is some state of affairs.
Some people in Government were interpreting the comments by Brexit secretary David Davis on Tuesday – when he suggested that regulatory alignment should extend to all of the UK – may be a signal that the British government is moving in a definitive direction at last, and that direction is towards a softer Brexit. Is this May's move? Other sources dispute it, saying that the British were always likely to seek alignment in some areas to facilitate a free trade agreement. Others say they don't know what they can believe or depend on.
