The shape of the field for the European elections at the end of May is beginning to emerge in advance of selection conventions to be held by the major parties over the coming month.
The news that outgoing Irish Farmers’ Association president John Bryan is seeking a Fine Gael nomination has filled in one of the final pieces of the jigsaw as far as the new South constituency is concerned.
Dublin is probably the most wide open of the three new constituencies devised to take account of the reduction in the number of the country’s seats from 12 to 11.
There is strong speculation that prominent Minister of State Brian Hayes will be the Fine Gael candidate. What is not clear is whether or not he will have a running mate. Given Fine Gael’s standing in the polls, and his own impressive performance in office, Mr Hayes will be hot favourite to take one of the three Dublin seats.
After that it is anyone’s guess who will take the other two seats.
Fianna Fáil’s loss of a seat in the capital in 2009 was an early sign that the party was in serious trouble. Winning it back would be a boost to morale and would indicate that it can regain some Dáil seats in Dublin at the next general election.
Gay rights campaigner
In recent days former Minister Mary Hanafin and Senator Averil Power have ruled themselves out and the nomination is now between Councillor Mary Fitzpatrick and gay rights campaigner Tiernan Brady.
Ms Fitzpatrick achieved prominence over the past decade for her internal tussles with Bertie Ahern and his Drumcondra mafia and could stand her in good stead if she gets the nomination.
For Labour the flag bearer will be current MEP Emer Costello. Given the slippage in Labour support since the general election of 2011 she will have a battle on her hands to retain the seat won last time around by Proinsias De Rossa.
The leading left-wing candidate is Socialist Party MEP Paul Murphy, who took over the seat won last time by Joe Higgins. A problem for him is that he faces a challenge from People Before Profit candidate Councillor Brid Smith, who has also been active on issues like opposition to the property tax.
Protest vote
Sinn Féin will also be looking for a large slice of the protest vote. The party has selected a relative unknown, Lynn Ní Bhaoigheallain, to carry the flag in Dublin. A native of Tallaght in Dublin, she contested the 2007 general election in Kerry South and the last local election in Killarney, failing to be elected on either occasion.
The Green Party candidate will be party leader and former minister Eamon Ryan.
In the South constituency Fine Gael has a good chance of holding two of the four seats with the addition of Mr Bryan to the ticket along with sitting MEP Seán Kelly and possibly Senator Deirdre Clune.
Fianna Fáil MEP Brian Crowley is strongly tipped to retain his seat. Fianna Fáil research officer Adrian O’Higgins from Kilkenny or former senator Sean Connick from Wexford may run in the south Leinster part of the constituency. For Labour, sitting MEP Phil Prendergast will be the candidate and she may have a running mate.
Sinn Féin has nominated Liadh Ní Riada, daughter of Seán Ó Riada, as the party candidate.
In the new North/Midlands constituency Fine Gael’s outgoing MEPs Mairead McGuinness and Jim Higgins will be running again. Ms McGuinness has taken over the leadership of the party group in the European Parliament and will be a strong candidate.
Fianna Fáil outgoing MEP Pat “the Cope” Gallagher will be a strong contender if he decides to run again as will Independent MEP Marian Harkin, who is certainly running.
