The Beast from the East has arrived, and further frost is expected from north of the Border sometime around noon when the European Commission publishes the draft Brexit withdrawal agreement between the EU and UK.
The text of the agreement, leaked last night, outlines how Northern Ireland will effectively remain in the European customs union under the potential "no-deal" Brexit scenario – option C as outlined in the pre-Christmas Brexit deal. It is our lead story this morning.
The so-called backstop only takes effect if there is a failure of options A and B – a future EU-UK trade deal removing the prospect of a hard Border or the UK formulating technological border solutions agreeable to all sides.
The latter option has long been treated with deep scepticism by Dublin, and Boris Johnson’s comparison between a future border arrangement and congestion charges in London will only reinforce that view.
In an astonishing leak, Sky News also reported yesterday evening that Johnson told Theresa May it was wrong to think there will be no Border in Ireland after Brexit.
Predictably, the response to the EU text from May’s confidence-and-supply agreement partners in the DUP has been volcanic. Jeffrey Donaldson claimed it “fundamentally breaches the understanding reached in December and would undermine the constitutional status of NI in the Belfast Agreement.
“If the EU or Dublin believes the UK government will be signing up to a border in the Irish Sea, they are deluded,” Donaldson said.
Of course, this is all a matter of negotiation between the UK and the EU. Aside from the DUP, the reaction from London has been negative.
Taoiseach Leo Varadkar reiterated in the Dáil yesterday that Option A, where Britain wants the focus to be, remains the preferred way of avoiding a hard Border.
But, not to worry. The Telegraph reports that, after Brexit, those in the UK will be able to order champagne by the pint.
Back on the home front, one Merrion Street figure expressed hope yesterday it could be a good week for the Government, what with the chance to pick a fight with the UK once more and the opportunity for the firm smack of good administration in dealing with the Beast from the East.
They hope . . .
Fianna Fail claims victory on vulture funds
The Cabinet yesterday agreed to Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe’s proposal that the Government agree to Fianna Fail’s Bill to ensure vulture funds are regulated by the Central Bank.
Donohoe has also asked the Central Bank to review the code of conduct for mortgage arrears, and our report on the issueis here.
While many in Government believe the changes in Michael McGrath’s Bill will have little material effect, they recognise the politics if it were firmly on Fianna Fail’s side and bowed to the inevitable.
McGrath has made it clear, however, that action must follow and that the Government must not - as it has done with many Opposition proposals - allow his Bill pass the opening legislative stages only to leave it languish at committee stage.
Fianna Fail sources said they have had enough experience of this in the two years this governmental arrangement has been in place, and will not stand for it as confidence and supply enters its final stages.
Government figures expect a similar approach from Fianna Fail on a number of policy issues in the months ahead, as they seek to prepare the ground for the next general election.
