The only poll that matters

Charles Haughey made a mantra out of his standard response to opinion polls saying the only one that mattered was the election.

Most opinion polls have a sample of 1,000 respondents, representing all areas of the country and all sections of society. However, even with such large samples, the margin of error is still plus or minus three per cent. Thus, a party polling on 10 per cent, could conceivably be attracting 13 per cent of the vote, or indeed only seven per cent.

In addition, it is a sample of 100 per cent of the population; whereas the turnout is often lower (66 per cent in the British elections).

Pollsters use various measures to try and provide for this (by excluding don’t knows for example). But many of those who tell pollsters they will vote (younger people for example) won’t live up to their intentions.

Most British polls had the two main parties neck-and-neck whereas there was a seven-point difference between them in the election (37.5 per cent to 30.5 per cent). Both results were marginally outside the margin for error.

What implications does it have for Ireland? Well, obviously the media (and political parties) lay great store behind opinion polls. But it is often forgotten how blunt a measuring instrument they often are, and they have spectacularly got it wrong in the past.

In the Seanad referendum for example, all the opinion polls suggested the Yes vote would prevail. The TNS mrbi poll for The Irish Times put the margin at 62 to 38 in favour. The referendum was rejected by the people.

The divergence might have been explained by the high number of “don’t knows”, the low turn-out (No voters were more committed; Yes voters less so) and (less so) a late surge towards No.

Polls in Ireland have been seldom on the button when it comes to general elections. Late polls overestimated Fine Gael and Labour support in the 2011 election by between one and two per cent each, while underestimated Fianna Fáil support by two to three per cent.

So, opinion polls being published now give some indication of the lie of the land but will not tell you which parties are likely to form the next government.

Who are Ireland’s Shy Tories?

Another phenomenon in the election was that people whose inclination was to vote Conservative did not volunteer that information when asked by pollsters. In Ireland, there was an opposite experience during the time Fianna Fáil was in power. The mrbi adjusted Fianna Fail figures downwards after it found more people stated it would vote for the party than actually did. That correcting mechanism no longer applied once Fianna Fail support was reduced to its core.

All political parties claim that opinion polls don’t reflect their true support. As of now, the likelihood is that three parties could claim to having shy voters. The first is Fianna Fáil. The evidence is that the party has done better in recent elections than opinion poll standings have indicated. The second is Labour. Its strategists will say the pendulum has swung for the party. In the run-up to 2011, more people told polling companies they would vote Labour than actually did. Now, there are indications there are ‘shy’ Labour supporters out there who will shore up the party’s support. The third party is Fine Gael, although the trend may be minimal for it. On the other side of the coin, support for independents, smaller parties and Sinn Féin looks overstated.

Will Labour be eviscerated?

On the back of a series of poor opinion poll showings (with support levels of six per cent or less), a number of commentators were predicting that Labour might win no seats in the next election. It is an observable fact that smaller parties fare badly electorally when coming out of a coalition government – the history of Irish elections is littered with the corpses of once-strong parties.

So what is evident? Labour is likely to see its number of TDs halved at least and might see its representation dwindle to near single digits. There are two key differences between it and the Liberal Democrats.

In the first instance, the Lib Dems seemed to be hugged to death by the Conservatives. They gave the appearance of being ‘wet’ Tories rather than a party that was separate and distinct.

If there was a danger of this happening under Eamon Gilmore, the party's new leader Joan Burton has reversed engines. There has been a far more brazen and abrasive assertion of the Labour Party role – expect to see a few rows being picked in the coming months.

The second factor is the electoral systems. The first-past-the-post system is a brutish winner-takes-all contest. It seems such an anomaly that parties that won 5 million votes between them (UKIP and the Greens) won only 2 seats between them.

Yet, the Scots nationalists which won 56 seats, did so with only 1.4 million votes. If there had been some form of PR system in Britain, the Lib Dems would have lost seats but might still have won a respectable total.

What are the Big Issues?

In the past, opposition parties have tried to make general elections referendums on health services, accountability, and governance. All of them become part of the equation, but none can out-trump the economy. The party or parties that can best convince the population it can best manage the economy, offer stability, and put more money in people’s pockets, will take the spoils.

“It’s the economy, stupid,” was Bill Clinton’s catch-cry during the 1992 Us presidential election.

Perhaps, rather than looking at party support, pollsters might have focused on the one question in opinion polls where David Cameron scored consistently high. And that was: "Who do you trust most to manage the economy?"

Sure, health services and water charges, as well as other austerity measures, will feature. But the handling of the economy will be the big question over which the election will be fought.

The in-out referendum

Our currency has not been pegged to sterling since the mid 1980s but a ‘Brexit’ would have massive repercussions for the State – as Britain remains our biggest trading partner. It is noteworthy that in his first response to Cameron’s election victory, Taoiseach Enda Kenny referred to a bilateral meeting that is being arranged. There will be one topic that will dominate and that is the referendum.

It’s likely not to be held until quite late in the government’s term – possibly as late as 2019 but it will be a dominant theme in the coming years. It’s a problematic issue and is sure to colour the relationship between both countries. His victory reinforces Cameron’s position as Tory leader. Yet his majority is small and his right-wing critics are still there.