Good morning.
Today is the birthday of Jean Monnet, one of the founding fathers of the European Union. What would he have made of Brexit?
Being a Frenchman, perhaps he might have observed that our great friends across the Irish Sea can sometimes be a rum lot. Brexit continues to transfix Brussels, but it has utterly convulsed the UK.
This morning’s newspapers carry much evidence for the above. Our lead story today reports that Taoiseach Leo Varadkar struck a note of cautious optimism in the Dail yesterday while answering questions about Brexit, opining for the first time that he believes a breakthrough is likely in the Brexit negotiations in the coming weeks.
Such a breakthrough in the talks would enable European leaders to judge at the December summit that “sufficient progress” had been made, thus clearing the way for the second phase of talks - on the future EU-UK relationship, which crucially includes trade - to begin after Christmas.
For this to happen though, Brussels sources insist, the UK will have to give firm commitments on money. Which brings us to the trials of Theresa May.
May lost another cabinet minister yesterday, her second in a week, with the resignation of international development secretary Priti Patel.
Moreover, May’s deputy, Damien Green, is hanging on by a thread amid allegations of sexual misconduct in a political atmosphere fetid with rumour and fear. An air of chaos and decay enshrouds May’s administration.
Yesterday’s events, Evan Davis observed on BBC Newsnight last night, “made the Thick of It look like the Churchill Diaries”. It’s not just that this British government is falling apart. It’s that British government as a general principle seems to be falling apart.
The problem for the Brexit talks is that an enfeebled May probably lacks the political strength necessary to make the compromises - such as on money - which would make an agreement with the EU on Brexit possible.
If she falls - surely a prospect that is coming more and more inevitable - who replaces her? Boris Johnson? Jeremy Corbyn? You pays your money, you takes your chances . . .
