There's nothing like an opinion poll to give an electric jolt to a campaign. Not that this campaign was moribund, but the first Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI survey has certainly injected a new urgency into the remaining two-and-a-half weeks of the campaign.
There’s a big slide for Fine Gael, a massive surge for Sinn Féin and steady-as-she-goes for Fianna Fáil.
These are the key findings of the poll: “Excluding undecided voters and those unlikely to vote, 25 per cent of respondents said they would vote for Fianna Fáil (no change), 23 per cent for Fine Gael (down six), 21 per cent for Sinn Féin (up seven), 5 per cent for Labour (down one), 8 per cent for the Green Party (no change) and 18 per cent for Independents and small parties (no change). The comparison is with the most recent Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll last October.”
In an excellent analysis piece, Pat Leahy examines what the poll tells the parties.
“The six-point drop that Fine Gael sees in its numbers - compared to our last poll in October - is bigger than anything the party has seen in this series since the last general election. And the cratering of Taoiseach Leo Varadkar’s personal rating - down from 51 per cent to 35 per cent - will alarm the party which has designed much of its campaign around its leader.
“It’s hard to escape the fact that Fine Gael has been confronted with its own unpopularity - a revelation which is always uncomfortable, no matter how predictable, for governments. Better now than on polling day, Varadkar might say, but it does show the extent of the challenge facing him and his colleagues,” Leahy writes.
It’s a remarkable surge for Sinn Féin. The party had a terrible local election and lost a raft of seats. However, it did perform well in a number of key constituencies. It must not be forgotten it had a spate of resignations, and bullying claims, at local level at the time. These might have had an impact in the local elections but not featured as a factor the national picture.
The November byelections helped steady the ship for it. On this showing Sinn Féin will be recalibrating (as we all will) the number of seats it is capable of holding in the election.
There is a caveat, however. If you look at the pattern of the 2016 election, the party started off at 19 per cent in the first Irish Times poll and ended up with 13.8 per cent.
The challenge for the party this time will be consolidating the vote and ensure less slippage. It attracts a vote from younger voters and working class voters that don’t turn out in huge numbers. The name of the game for Sinn Féin will be to get those voters out. If it doesn’t, the party will repeat the pattern of all previous elections and underperform compared to poll findings.
The Greens are strong in Dublin. The party has 8 per cent nationally but 15 per cent support in the capital. It is strongly placed to pick up seats in most constituencies (I think Dublin North West is not possible, and Dublin Mid West may be a struggle).
Elsewhere, Labour will be deeply disappointed. It needs a few more percentage points to make gains. There is a possibility there are some shy Labour supporters out there, and the party will hope its true support level has been understated just as Fianna Fáil’s was in 2016.
The Social Democrats, Solidarity-People Before Profit and the Independent Alliance are all in the foothills. It is hard to see any of those three groupings making substantial gains based on these figures.
The other thing that has to be considered is that 20 per cent of the electorate has yet to make up its mind. Those votes will be to play for in the next 19 days.
The TV debates will also play a crucial part. The first is tomorrow night on Virgin Media. It was announced very suddenly, and you have to wonder if Fine Gael agreed to such an early showdown based on some negative poll findings?
Best Reads
Read Pat Leahy's analysis piece in full.
The Irish Times view on the poll.
The pension gap between 65 and 67 is the stealth issue of this campaign. A revelatory piece by Martin Wall and Dominic Coyle.
Unfortunately, some incidents of vandalism and sabotage have taken place, as Ronan McGreevy and Barry Roche report.
Marie O'Halloran reports on the Aontú campaign launch.
Fiach Kelly reports on the Fine Gael health policy launch.
Jack Power reports on Solidarity running a candidate in Dublin South West against former member and sitting TD Paul Murphy.
Jennifer Bray reports on Sinn Féin's housing policies.
Playbook
Taoiseach Leo Varadkar will be in Fermoy Mart in Co Cork today talking on the theme of “Protecting Farmers’ interests on Brexit & CAP”. He will be joined by Michael Creed, Minister for Agriculture, who is also a local TD. The event is on at 11.30am.
Fianna Fáil will give a press briefing on housing at noon. The party is promising a big social housing programme plus its SSIA-type scheme for young people trying to get on the property market.
Labour is unveiling its general election campaign with leader Brendan Howlin. The party will present what it says is a “compilation of the huge waste of public money that has happened under the Fine Gael government, kept in power by Fianna Fáil over the last four years”. The launch is on at 11am.
The Greens pick the unusual venue of Bull Island to launch its biodiversity and pollution policy. Its press release states: “The island nature reserve is emblematic of the pressures on the living world. Much loved by visitors, the island and its wildlife are under pressure from plastic pollution, sewage outflow, over-fishing, habitat loss as well as sea level rise from climate breakdown. The Green Party document will outline practical measures to tackle these.”
We are unsure as to what Sinn Féin is doing as we have not yet received a notification email of what it is doing today other than basking in the findings of the latest opinion poll!
