The first of the Fine Gael leadership hustings takes place tonight, and even though the contest between Simon Coveney and Leo Varadkar is all but over, there is genuine anticipation in the party around the head-to-head debate.
It will be the first time that candidates for the party leadership have put themselves before the rank and file to explain why they want to head Fine Gael, and the first event, at the Red Cow Moran Hotel in Dublin, comes at a moment when some members are annoyed about the way the contest has unfolded.
With the parliamentary party hugely in favour of Varadkar, Coveney has gone over the heads of TDs, senators and MEPs to members and councillors, arguing that their voices need to be heard, too. His supporters are geeing up members across the country by telling them that the contest should not have been stitched up in Dublin 2.
The Varadkar camp points out that Coveney is not beyond reproach. It was he, it argues, who was first out of the traps last Thursday, marching a dozen or so of his supporters from the parliamentary party to Fine Gael headquarters, on Mount Street. Varadkar’s response has been to shrug and say it’s not his fault that, in response, more people have wanted to come out and support him.
Yet Coveney's argument is gaining traction, if conversations with councillors are anything to go by. Harry McGee has picked up similar sentiments from Fine Gael members around the country.
“There is a bit of a kickback against the avocado-mash coronation,” said one party figure in regular contact with the grassroots, echoing what happened with the failed, and shambolic, cappuccino-kids heave of 2010. The difference is that the avocado-mash coronation has been clinically organised so far.
Only a handful of people in the parliamentary party have yet to declare who they will support. One of them, Minister for Agriculture Michael Creed, has been dubbed the Quiet Man by Miriam Lord. Coveney, trying to coax more to his side, will hope that a good performance tonight can give him some momentum.
Each candidate will deliver a 10-minute opening addresses, followed by a question-and-answer session moderated by Gavin Duffy, who featured on RTÉ’s Dragons’ Den.
Some in the Varadkar camp believe they will easily carry the parliamentary party's 65 per cent of the electoral college and the councillors' 10 per cent but lose the 25 per cent allocated to the wider Fine Gael membership. Our Leadership Tracker now includes a regional breakdown of how the 21,000 Fine Gael members entitled to vote in the contest intend to cast their ballots.
One Varadkar supporter says Coveney’s base among members might be more motivated than Varadkar’s to cast their ballots, raising the prospect of Coveney’s winning the rank-and-file vote on a poor turnout. This would give Coveney a strong claim to have a say in the future of the party, and a senior Cabinet position, under a Varadkar leadership.
