Pauline political conversions don’t happen randomly or by chance. In the political narrative “on the road to Damascus” is usually translated into “after a disastrous election” or “after a dismal opinion poll”.
Bertie Ahern came up with the Inchdoney Strategy and embraced socialism after an indifferent 2004 local election by Fianna Fáil and poll analysis that showed people didn't like the mood of rampant greed prevailing in the party at the time (a fat lot of good that did!).
The Greens demanded a new programme for government after they tanked in the 2009 local elections. Enda Kenny came up with the wheeze of abolishing the Seanad in the autumn of 2009 when Labour raced ahead in the polls.
This weekend the Labour Party has signalled it wants the Coalition to undergo a major change of direction. In his speech at his party's 1916 commemoration at Arbour Hill yesterday, Labour leader and Tánaiste Eamon Gilmore spoke of the need for a "renewal of purpose" by Government.
The phrase was almost a replica of the one used by his closest colleague in the party, Pat Rabbitte, in a Sunday newspaper interview. It was a planned and co-ordinated strategy. Gilmore stopped short of saying his party would seek a renegotiation of the programme for government. But the message was clear. The troika has gone. The political winds have changed. The two Coalition parties also need to change tack or find themselves becalmed.
A senior Labour source accepted it is a deliberate strategy and is designed to give a "bit of a warning shot" to Government, especially to Fine Gael admirals in the wheelhouse.
“I think it’s no coincidence that it is coming at the end of the week when a senior minister resigns. We have reached a different phase after the bailout ended and we need to renew the focus in this new phase.
“The Shatter controversy goes back to well before the troika left but it arose in the public domain at a time when priorities were on big picture issues, the economy. Line ministers were in effect left alone to manage their own portfolios with less oversight than normal.
“We are back to these more normal problems now [post troika]. These things happen in most governments but we need to be geared towards dealing with those problems in a different way,” said the source.
Post-troika drift
How does that play out? Well, Rabbitte talked about post-troika drift that needs to be addressed. He suggested an end to taxes and spending cuts. Yesterday, Gilmore indicated the focus should be on jobs, on solving the housing problem and on protecting people's incomes.
What differs from this call for change is its proactive nature. This kind of soul-searching usually occurs after an electoral battering. This has been timed a few weeks in advance of the local and European elections (neither election is likely to be remembered as Labour’s greatest hour).
The timing is smart and may persuade some that Labour might cushion the party from some of the more dire predictions. Locally, the party might not fare as badly as some fear.
The thing about “renewal”, though, is that no matter how you phrase it, it will require a renegotiation of the basic agreements struck by Fine Gael and Labour. If that doesn’t mean a formal renegotiation of the programme for government, it will still mean big alterations in many of its principles and goals contained. And, of course, Fine Gael will have many of its own ideas on what they should be.
