Good morning.
All eyes will be on Westminster today where a week (a week! Eight hours a day!) of debate begins in advance of the “meaningful vote” - as it’s termed in law - on the withdrawal treaty. It’ll be meaningful, alright. But what will the meaning be?
Brexit again features on our front page this morning, with Denis Staunton writing from London in advance of the debate today.
Theresa May, he says, will appeal to MPs to back a deal that is “opposed by much of her party and the opposition”.
Yesterday Mrs May’s attorney general refused to publish the full legal advice he provided to the government, instead choosing to brief MPs about its contents and answer their questions - something which not surprisingly did not satisfy opponents of Mrs May’s deal on all sides of the House.
The Commons will now vote on whether the government is in defiance of its rules and may even suspend the unfortunate AG.
The truth is Mrs May is fighting for her political life. A big defeat and the prime minister - as well as the treaty in its current form - is probably finished. A narrow or at least reversible defeat would not be fatal, but could end up with the ball in Ireland’s court, as Mrs May seeks a political statement or commitment from EU leaders at next week’s summit that the UK would not be indefinitely kept in the backstop. What would Messers Varadkar and Coveney do then?
Here's Cliff Taylor's explainer in advance of the debate, and here's a look forward to the week ahead.
And in case you missed it (as they say), here's my column from Saturday on the task facing Mrs May.
All our Brexit coverage is available here. Bottom line: the best case for Mrs May seems to be losing small. But it increasingly looks like she's on track to lose big. Either way, this will be a momentous week in British politics - and the effects of the decisions made will be immediately apparent in this country.
We'll keep you up to date on irishtimes.com. It could be a long few days.
Abortion service delays
The main story on today's front page is on the other issue that has been running all year - abortion. Our health correspondent, Paul Cullen, reports the ethical guidelines due to be supplied by the Medical Council for the forthcoming abortion service will not be ready in time for the January 1st deadline.
With the passage of the legislation by the end of the year also in doubt, it seems pretty clear the Government’s pledge to have the service up and running by the new year is not going to be met.
The question that faces Minister for Health Simon Harris now is whether to set a new deadline or plough ahead without one. And if he does set one, when will it be? The end of January? Easter?
Peter Boylan, the doctor and pro-choice campaigner appointed to oversee the implementation of the service, said today it will be mid-January, but he suggests service introduction will be patchy. “Nobody should expect perfection,” he said.
A new party?
Abortion was on the mind of many of the people - more than 300, by my count - that attended a public meeting in Navan last night to hear local TD Peadar Tóibín’s pitch for a new party.
Tóibín, the former Sinn Féin TD who broke with his party on abortion, was rapturously received by the home crowd, and while it’s clear that he sees the 34 per cent of the electorate who voted against the referendum as the base, the new party will seek not to be defined by its pro-life stance, he said.
In his speech, Tóibín spoke a lot more about “economic justice” than he did about abortion. One questioner in the audience asked if he would merge with Renua, which is also avowedly anti-abortion. No, said Tóibín. It’s clear he has his eyes on Fianna Fáil votes, rather than Renua support.
He was dropping all sorts of hints about potential new recruits. But, as he acknowledged, “politicians are windy buggers.” If Tóibín manages to attract some high profile recruits, it will create a media stir. But a new party needs a lots more standing-room-only hotel ballrooms if it’s going to get off the ground. It needs to be more Progressive Democrats, and less Renua.
Our report is here.
Best reads
David Attenborough warns of mass extinctions of species, including possibly our own. This is bad, but probably not as tedious as Brexit.
From the Guardian, Rafael Behr says the only question worth discussing is the one the Labour and Conservative leaders insist on ignoring: should the UK still leave the EU?
Today we publish the secondary schools league table, which demonstrates the advantages enjoyed by middle class students and those who attend fee-paying schools when it comes to university entry rates.
Fiach Kelly has an update on the confidence-and-supply talks.
On our letters page, the outgoing Master of the National Maternity Hospital (Rhona Mahony) and the incoming Master (Shane Higgins) write jointly to say that there is no threat of religious interference in the proposed new hospital on the St Vincent's site. The threat, they say, is that contracts must be signed by December 31st - which the Government has not done yet.
Playbook
A business motion in the House of Commons in Westminster this morning will set the arrangements for the Great Brexit Debate.
The Cabinet meets in Dublin, where matters Brexity might also get a mention.
Dáil business gets under way at 2pm with Leaders’ Questions, while statements on the broadband audit report commence at teatime. The Dáil is scheduled to sit until 11.30pm debating the abortion Bill. That’s your evening sorted.
Full details of the day's business on Oireachtas.ie.
And that’s it. Try not to worry too much about your extinction. It is unlikely to happen today. Pay attention to Brexit, on this, the feast day of St Osmund of Salisbury, patron saint of insanity (yes). Remember it’s only three weeks to Christmas. And whatever you do, have a very fruity day.
