The latest must-watch TV channel - the sad political anorak's Netflix - is parliamentlive.tv, the live streaming channel from Westminster.
Late last night we followed the two crucial votes on Brexit that were decided. One thing about the British parliament is that its speaker John Bercow certainly understands the concept of the narrative ark, which provides the underlying formula for all successful films and drama series. With his bellowing of “Division”; “The Ayes have It” and “Unlock”, the decisions certainly get full value.
There was another dispiriting (and humiliating) defeat for prime minister Theresa May last night when a motion tabled by former Conservative minister Oliver Letwin to allow a series of "indicative votes" was voted through by 329 to 302.
This was a significant moment. It was fiercely opposed by the Conservative leadership even though it itself has indicated it would bring a similar motion allowing the same process in the event that Theresa May did not get her third meaningful vote through the House.
So why oppose the Letwin amendment if it itself was minded to allow the same process? May and her remaining supporters in Cabinet (three further ministers resigned last night after voting for the Letwin amendment) said that by giving the power to parliament to decide the order paper, it would overturn the balance of power between parliament and government, and create a constitutional crisis.
In the event, it was a heavy defeat for May. Now on Wednesday, a whole raft of propositions will be put to MPs - from a second referendum, to revoking Article 50, to a soft Brexit with Britain a signed-up member of the Customs Union, to no-Deal, to a Canada-style exit. What or how parliament decides it all is still up in the air.
And what of MV3, meaningful vote three? The prospect of it being floated this week receded yesterday when DUP leader Arlene Foster said its position has not changed. May told the House of Commons yesterday: “It is with great regret that I have to conclude that as things stand there is still not sufficient support in the House to bring back the deal for a third meaningful vote.”
Meanwhile, a technical Bill tomorrow will push back the date for Brexit by a fortnight to April 12th. But that just seems like a stay of execution. From this vantage point it still looks dismal. No Deal looks more likely. May’s premiership is in the balance.
Climate change might be the new water charges
Irish politics has moved beyond climate change denial, bar the odd poetic outburst from Danny Healy Rae. Everybody agrees that our emissions are too high and that something must be done to bring Ireland back to compliance with our obligations to the EU, and to the 2050 aims of the Paris Accord.
It’s an urgent issue for the young - tens of thousands of students protested in Irish cities and towns on March 15th. Their protests were praised by the political class - how often does Leo Vardkar and his Ministers describe us as “laggards”.
But when it comes to the remedy that’s where politicians have quickly run out of road. Governments have been slow to grasp the nettle, especially in terms of tackling agriculture emissions and in imposing carbon taxes.
Of course, there is a problem with numbers. The Government does not have anything like a majority so making tough decisions (ones that hurt people in their pocket) is just very difficult.
Not for the first time in this Oireachtas term it has come up with a novel (and effective) way of dealing with troublesome issues. It has gone the route of, firstly, a Citizens’ Assembly consideration, and then an ad hoc Oireachtas committee.
The committee, chaired by Fine Gael’s Hildegarde Naughton, has done a highly effective job and come up with some excellent proposals in a report to be published on Thursday. They have included some tough measures on agriculture and lofty ambition on renewables.
However, the fault line has been carbon tax. Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, Labour, the Social Democrats and the Greens are all in favour of increasing the carbon tax from €20 per tonne to €80 per tonne (by 2030). That would increase the price of petrol and diesel by about 15 per cent a litre, or increasing the price of a bale of briquettes from €5 to €6.
Except, the increases are opposed by Sinn Féin and People Before Profit. Their argument is that it will impact the poorest most. The PBP alternative is to tax the oil companies to the hilt. In a way it’s water charges revisited. Their approach will put no pressure on citizens to change their behaviour. In addition, there is strong opposition among car-dependent commuters, and people living in rural Ireland, to increases at the petrol pumps (something that rural TDs of all hues are worried about).
And so we have a division. A minority of TDs will oppose any increases in carbon tax, while proposing no realistic feasible alternative to help Ireland meet its targets.
A big majority of TDs will support the carbon tax changes. The report will influence Minister Richard Bruton’s long-awaited action plan, also due out by the end of the month.
But then will we see street protests again? Remember the Gilet Jaune movement in France began with protests about increases in diesel prices at the pumps.
Best Reads
Eoin Burke-Kennedy on a new report which predicts a disorderly Brexit could cost the Irish economy 8,000 jobs.
Simon Carswell reports on the details of almost 200 letters received by Simon Coveney since last November.
Patrick Freyne continues his journey through Brexit Britain.
Fintan O'Toole examines the 'Britishness' of people in Northern Ireland.
Playbook
14.00: Leaders' Questions in which Taoiseach Leo Varadkar will answer questions from the Opposition. I would be very surprised if Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin don't kick off with Brexit. Very very surprised unless asteroids hit the planet.
15.47: Parliamentary Questions for Minister for Agriculture, Food and the Marine Michael Creed.
18.05: Government Business. A number of Bills come before the House today. The Aircraft Noise (Dublin Airport) Regulation Bill 2018 has reached Report and Final Stages. This relates to the the contentious third runway which has been planned for well over a decade and will cost over €320 million.
Since then, new EU regulations require a noise regulator to be appointed. However, the original planning restrictions prohibiting flights late at night and in the early hours of the morning have been scrapped.
Fingal County Council has been appointed as regulator in what critics say is a move to facilitate the development.
The second Bill is the Regulated Professions (Health and Social Care) (Amendment) Bill 2019.
20.00: People Before Profit brings its Climate Emergency Measures Bill 2018 before the House. It proposed a ban on petroleum and other mineral development in Ireland. The debate will be preceded by a 'people power' protest on Kildare Street. That would all be fine but the party also opposes any increase in carbon tax.
Seanad
The Seanad convenes in the afternoon and will debate two important pieces of legislation. The first is the Wildlife (Amendment) Bill 2016 which is concerned with bog habitats. The second is the Sea-Fisheries (Amendment) Bill 2017, an effort by the Government to restore the voisinage (reciprocal fishing rights) arrangement between Northern and southern fishing fleets. However, the Opposition have already signalled they will oppose the Bill
Committees
14.00: The Finance Committee will discuss the banking sector with Philip Lane, Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland.
15.30: Committee on Education looks at the progression by members of the Travelling Community to second-level and third-level education.
16.00: Beidh an Cosite um Ghaeilge ag déanamh iniúchaithe ar na beartanna atá á gcur i gcrích ag an Roinn Talmhaíocht an Ghaeilge agus seirbhísí dátheangacha a chur ar fáil ann.
18.00: The Committee on Agriculture reaches committee stage of the Greyhound Racing Bill 2018. Andrew Doyle, Minister of State, will be in attendance.
