Since the avalanche in support towards Leo Varadkar in the opening days of the Fine Gael leadership campaign, his rival Simon Coveney has maintained that the parliamentary party is out of step with the councillors and the party membership that make up the rest of the electoral college.
Today’s poll does not measure Fine Gael members. But it does measure the voting public and it does measure Fine Gael voters and among both of those cohorts Coveney is the preferred choice for leader of the party by a small but not insignificant margin.
It should be said that the Fine Gael measurement is based on a smaller sample and therefore is less robust than the full national sample.
The results may not affect the near-insurmountable lead the Varadkar commands in the race. But they will do two other things: they undermine his claim that he is preferred by the public at large, and they will bolster Coveney’s claim that the parliamentary party does not represent the views of the members on the leadership choice. As the series of hustings gets under way, the poll is a fillip for Coveney, no doubt about it.
Now, God knows, he needed it. The Irish Times tracker of leadership support puts Varadkar on 45 per cent – on the cusp of a majority, and that's before the votes of the members are taken into consideration. It is not just that Coveney needs something big to happen, it's that the Varadkar campaign needs to blow up if the outcome is to change. Today's poll changes the picture, but it is not an explosion under the front-runner.
But it will fuel Coveney’s campaign and it will demonstrate to the members that maybe there is a contest here yet. That may not change the outcome, but it will certainly animate the next week.
