Voters can place political parties on the left/right spectrum, but this does not influence their voting choices in any meaningful way, according to a new book.
A Conservative Revolution: Electoral Change in Twenty-First Century Ireland, edited by Trinity College Dublin political science professors Gail McElroy and Michael Marsh, along with University College Dublin's David Farrell, examines underlying voter attitudes from 2002-11.
The book is the first to explore the complete set of Irish national election studies from 2002 to 2011. The post-election random sample surveys are designed to explain why Irish people vote the way they do.
An extensive analysis of party attachment showed that loyalties - even among strong party supporters - were malleable. Furthermore, loyalties did lead to very different perceptions of the same events.
In addition, the study found that contact with a TD leads to support at the next election.
The authors also note that while the health of the economy has long influenced election results, the very strong effects in 2011 were notable. “Punishment for failure is more striking than is reward for economic success,” they said.
Fianna Fáil ‘vulnerable’
An exploration of the media and electoral behaviour showed the tone and coverage of the economy during recent elections had a “limited impact” on voters’ perceptions of the economy, and “no direct influence” on voting behaviour.
There were no new parties established in 2011. “This is in part down to institutional reasons, but there was no obvious ‘space’ or set of issues that could provide a basis for one, although there was a general sense of dissatisfaction and anxiety,” they said.
Fianna Fáil was “vulnerable” as generational change over a long period left it with a smaller set of diehard supporters and in real competition with other parties for the rest.
Prof McElroy said the Irish national election study provides a “quality, trustworthy and objective data on voter attitudes and opinions”.
“The richness of the survey permits us to probe complex issues such as the role that morality and duty play in voter turnout and why ideology continues to play such a minimal role in Irish politics,” she said.
Prof Marsh said the first Irish national election study “showed us that much of what people thought they knew about Irish politics was wrong”.
“These analyses of the first three studies indicate what is changing, from the growing importance of class to malleable party loyalties, but also expand many of the easier findings, including the absence of any clear meaning of what is meant by ‘right’ and ‘left’, and underline the importance of maintaining this series of election studies,” he said.
