Colum Eastwood acknowledges that Thursday's Northern Assembly elections are a couple of years too soon for his SDLP party: "We didn't want this election, we didn't ask for it, we were just getting going and beginning to put people under pressure."
The SDLP and the Ulster Unionists were the formal opposition in the last Northern Assembly. Plans were afoot in the coming years to develop common platforms and, where possible, present a united front on issues such as jobs, health and education – all without diluting the nationalism of one and the unionism of the other.
After last May's election, Eastwood and Ulster Unionist leader Mike Nesbitt assumed they had until 2021 to gradually build up a realistic SDLP-UUP alternative to the DUP and Sinn Féin. But the "cash for ash" catastrophe and Martin McGuinness's collapse of the Assembly scuppered that fairly relaxed medium-term ambition.
Now the immediate and urgent scramble is to safeguard vulnerable seats and ensure that the SDLP vote does not deteriorate to such an extent that the party becomes a bit player in the grand scheme of Northern Ireland politics.
Campaign mode
Monday was another busy day in meeting that challenge. Aside from an interview with The Irish Times at party HQ on Belfast's Ormeau Road, Eastwood addressed a business breakfast further on up the road at the offices of the Mount Charles food and general business group.
At noon he launched a billboard at Belfast City Hall. It shows Theresa May, Arlene Foster and Michelle O'Neill with a speech bubble emerging from the DUP and Sinn Féin leaders stating, "A vote for us is a vote for direct rule".
It was then on to Enniskillen for canvassing with candidate Richie McPhillips and more media interviews, then back to his native Foyle for yet more knocking on doors. "There are three days left to defend devolution," was Eastwood's message.
The SDLP won 12 seats in the last 108-member Assembly. If this election turns sour, its seats could be down to eight or nine in the new 90-member Assembly, which would put it on a par with Alliance. On a sweet day, the SDLP could hold its 12.
The biggest threats are probably to Alex Attwood's seat in West Belfast, Nichola Mallon's in North Belfast, and Richie McPhillips in Fermanagh South Tyrone. Eastwood maintain that these seats will be held and that gains are possible in constituencies such as Upper Bann, Lagan Valley and South Antrim.
It is a nervous time. If both the SDLP and UUP have reasonable-to-good elections, the project to create that alternative to the DUP and Sinn Féin can start afresh. If the SDLP takes a big hit, then demoralisation and depression creep in. It’s a battle for every last vote and transfer.
Eastwood believes this will be an “attitude-changing election”. He says there is public disillusionment not only with the DUP over the Renewable Heat Incentive Scheme, but also with Sinn Féin. But where will the votes come from to protect threatened seats and win new ones?
Crunching numbers
Eastwood notes that 703,000 Northerners turned out for last May’s Assembly election and 790,000 voted in the Brexit referendum. Of those, 56 per cent in the North voted Remain.
If the additional 87,000 who voted in the EU poll voted again, he reasons, then that might assist both the SDLP and the UUP. “A lot of people stopped voting 18 years ago [in the 1998 Belfast Agreement referendum] and haven’t voted since, or not until the Brexit referendum. If those people come out to vote, then we would have a completely different electorate and, hopefully, an electorate that wants to see change.”
Eastwood (33) is part of a new cohort of younger SDLP politicians, among them Claire Hanna, Nichola Mallon, Daniel McCrossan and Justin McNulty. He believes centre-ground voters are comfortable with the co-operation between the SDLP and UUP .
"People should vote to maximise the best possible result in terms of change," he says. "That will inevitably mean voting for the UUP down the ballot paper. We do need to vote cross-community down the ballot paper. Nobody can tell me I am not an Irish nationalist, but I will transfer to the Ulster Unionist Party because I don't believe that my nationalism is threatened by it."
According to Eastwood, his party offers a different, more productive and co-operative form of nationalism than Sinn Féin: "I don't think Sinn Féin wants to make Northern Ireland work. Sinn Féin is about rhetoric. We want to get down and do the job."
He calls Brexit a monumental problem for the North as well as the British and Irish governments. Unionists have rubbished his proposal for Northern Ireland to be given special status within the EU, but he insists the entirety of the UK need not be forced to quit Europe.
"Special status is possible," he says. "I think the European Union is the most creative institution we have ever seen, and they have recognised the special status of Northern Ireland for a long time because they have helped fund our peace process."
After the “English rebellion” of Brexit, Eastwood says Britain has no chance of obtaining a “sweetheart deal” from Europe as this would only encourage other “populist movements” in the EU.
No friend of Ireland
Before the US election, Eastwood said he would not visit the White House if Donald Trump were president. He hasn't moderated his view.
“Before his election, I believed that he would do what he says and he has been doing what he says. He is creating an atmosphere in America that is very dangerous. He is creating an atmosphere for immigrants that is very dangerous. He is creating an atmosphere in the world which is making people nervous. He is no friend of Ireland.”
At the moment, though, Eastwood’s main focus is on the North’s 18 constituencies.
“I genuinely do think devolution is under enormous stress and threat, and I just think it is worth fighting for,” he says. “We are in a very dangerous place, and I think the result on Thursday will determine what kind of future we have.”
Like any other politician, Eastwood knows that ultimately it is all in the hands of the voters. But voters need to be wise, he cautions.
“Einstein talked about repeating the same thing over and over again – it is insanity. If [voters] want something different, they should come out and vote for something different. How much worse can it be?”
