Ten days from polling day and the sleeping No vote in the same-sex marriage referendum campaign is waking up.
Opinion polls and social media hashtags still suggest strongly there will be a Yes vote on May 22nd. But as the date gets closer, politicians and analysts are acknowledging there is a shy No vote emerging.
Margaret Hickey, a spokeswoman for Mothers and Fathers Matter, a group campaigning on the No side, said there had been reluctance on the part of some to admit they would be voting No.
“There is a No voter who is not readily forthcoming. When they realise who you are, they reveal their position.
“They don’t want to be identified as homophobic or in any way opposed to equality but that is what they are being spun to be.
“We are finally succeeding in finding the small voice against a megaphone campaign which is heavily funded.”
Fianna Fáil Senator Averil Power, who is the deputy director of elections for her party which supports the referendum proposal, commented: “Some people will say yes absolutely, 100 per cent behind it. Some people will say No and you have to respectfully accept that.
‘Don’t knows’
“There are a lot of ‘don’t knows’, more than are telling the pollsters, or maybe they are the soft Yes that is not being captured in the polls.
“There are a lot of people who want to vote Yes but still have some reservations. I don’t think they are saying Yes when they mean No.
“They are definitely saying ‘I don’t know’ when they mean No.”
The Catholic Church said many of their congregation are seeking advice from bishops about the potential effect on marriage.
Church spokesman Martin Long said there were a number of people writing and emailing asking for guidance, significantly more than in any other referendum.
“The bishops are being asked by members to define the church’s teaching on marriage. The bishops are asking people to consider the importance of marriage and to deeply reflect before making their decision.”
Hickey, from Mothers and Fathers Matter, said there had been tremendous support for its campaign – far more than was registering in the polls.
Canvassing has intensified among all groups over the past three weeks. Fine Gael TD Regina Doherty admitted the shy No vote could not be underestimated.
“You can do all the polls and the radio interviews you want, but if you do not engage with people, human-to-human, on the doorsteps, it could be lost. I meet people at the door who say No or don’t know, and I ask ‘do you mind if I ask you why’. When they get a chance to do that, you can answer their questions or reassure their doubts.”
Political analyst Seán Donnelly said the biggest Yes votes will come from Dublin South West and Dún Laoghaire, but places like Donegal will reject the referendum proposal.
Reluctance
He said all the polls would suggest the vote was “home and dry” but he wouldn’t be surprised if it was lost.
“Older people always come out to vote and the young people might not bother. There is a reluctance to tell pollsters that you are voting No.
“As it gets closer to the time, there is doubt emerging and it would not surprise me if it was beaten. All you need is a bit of doubt.”
Changing the Constitution was a significant issue for Irish people and if there were any question marks over what people were being asked to do, voters would vote No, Donnelly said.
Senior Government figures said a week ago they would have called victory at 60:40 but they have shortened this margin in recent days.
Sinn Féin’s justice spokesman Pádraig MacLochlainn said every party, including his own, needed to do more.
He said there was a huge onus on Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil to remind their core voters in rural areas of the party’s position. He said there was a “shy and conservative vote” out there that remained to be convinced.
Labour TD John Lyons said there was another split between aspiration and intent. He was optimistic the referendum would still pass but it was not as clear-cut as first thought.
