The first 100 days of a government is like the first 10 minutes of a championship match. There’s a bit of preening, a lot of showboating, a tincture of jostling, a bellyflop or two and a whole lot of flattering to deceive.
But when the final whistle blows none of that early stuff will really matter that much.
The concept of the first 100 days was a master stroke by FDR, who used it as a compelling device to show his determination to lift the US out of the 1929 recession.
As time has gone on it has been hijacked by the marketeers and has become meaningless. It is a stunt based on an arbitrary number that will be forgotten by the ungrateful voting classes.
But for the insecure political parties in government it’s a kind of popper, giving them an instant hit of gratification that wears off in an instant.
For Fine Gael the first 100 days does not really amount to or mean anything. Sure, the programme for government contains about 15 first-100-day commitments, and another five or so in the short side-deal between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.
That tick-list was an imperative arising from the big election issues – suspending water charges, a housing and homelessness initiative – and promises that reflected the new political realities such as the budgetary process and concessions to the Independent Alliance.
Dominant party
For Fine Gael it has been a strange first three months in Government. It is the overwhelmingly dominant party in the administration but, ironically, the first 100 days has been more about what the party could not do in Government rather than what it could do.
Indeed, for most of that time there was more than a faint possibility the first 100 days of this Government might also be the last 100 days of this Government.
Running a minority government shy 20 seats of a majority might be the norm in Scandinavian countries.
But it has been a novel experience here, and the grand experiment has had a tentative, uninspiring and faltering start.
Fine Gael has been like a clipped eagle since May, unable to assert its own identity or to impose its vision or ideals on the Government.
It is not all its fault. It simply doesn’t have the numbers. So Government has meant that rule by diktat is no longer.
These days it is all about deals and compromises, and wan diluted solutions to major problems and issues.
Ironically if you look at the team on paper it is the most right-of-centre government in the history of the State.
There is no Labour Party to temper the low taxes and law-and-order of Fine Gael. Two senior Ministers, Denis Naughten and Shane Ross, are also of Fine Gael stock.
However, the “balancing” comes from outside. Every major policy measure needs to be okayed by Fianna Fáil, and the Government has had to brace itself for regular defeats on Private Members’ motions.
On the fundamentals you can take it that the two big parties will conspire to maintain the status quo, to ensure the centrist view remains.
The corollary of that is that nothing radical or imaginative or amazing will be done by this Government.
Or nothing that tastes of tough medicine or that would not be a crowd-pleaser. You can forget about anything strong on climate change, for example.
Internal ructions
Indeed, in a sense the two takeaways for Fine Gael in Government have had little to do with Fine Gael in Government.
The first was the internal ructions that beset the party after a series of cock-ups, including a terrible Irish Times poll (that saw Fianna Fáíl race into a substantial lead) and Enda Kenny folding when the Independent Alliance decided to flex its muscles over the Eighth Amendment.
The second was Brexit. No party is more pro-European than Fine Gael, and it parades its European People’s Party credentials ad infinitum.
The challenge presented by Britain’s plan to leave the EU will place a particular burden of responsibility on the party.
The referendum result happened during the first 100 days. But it is the next 500 days that will be important, as the party works its contacts and Kenny works his much-vaunted special relationship with Angela Merkel, François Holland and other influential European leaders.
Roughings up
In the first week of the new Dáil, Fine Gael became acutely aware of the limit of its powers.
Fianna Fáil came up with a really sly one, reheating a Private Members’ Bill on mortgage relief from 2015.
It phrased it in such a way that it knew it could attract Sinn Féin support. It was the first of a series of roughings up the Government would face.
Kenny had a few bad weeks and, for a politician of his experience, displayed some very poor judgment.
His decision to appoint James Reilly as party deputy leader did not go well with the troops.
He also let Ross and John Halligan ride roughshod over collective Cabinet responsibility, with their defiant "we are voting against the Government on the Eighth Amendment" no matter what the Attorney General is advising.
“Man up”
The big weakness of Fine Gael so far in Government is that it has not faced down its opponents. It has buckled every time there has been a clash.
It needs to “man up” at some stage and threaten to pull down the Government if it does not get its own way.
Maybe it has strategised it is too early to do so, but it is going to have to do it by the end of the year.
Kenny saw off the challenge but the conversation about Fine Gael continues to be about his continuing leadership and if and when Simon Coveney and Leo Varadkar will launch their challenges.
The budget has been so pre-discussed and brokered that it is hard to see it as a deal-breaker for Fianna Fáil. Barring a catastrophe, Kenny will remain in situ for another year at least.
Even if there is an election, Fine Gael can do what Fianna Fáíl did in 2011 when Brian Cowen stayed on as taoiseach, while Micheál Martin led the party into the election campaign.
