Politics

‘Think-ins’ a warm-up for general election campaigns

Opinion: Both Opposition parties are proceeding on the basis there will be an election in autumn 2015

‘Coalition strategists are all gearing up for the general election campaign even though they deny it publicly.’ Above, Taoiseach Enda Kenny and Tánaiste Joan Burton after their first joint press conference outside Government Buildingsin July. Photograph: Aidan Crawley
‘Coalition strategists are all gearing up for the general election campaign even though they deny it publicly.’ Above, Taoiseach Enda Kenny and Tánaiste Joan Burton after their first joint press conference outside Government Buildingsin July. Photograph: Aidan Crawley
Harry McGee's picture
Harry McGee
Sun Sept 14 2014 - 12:01

There is a strong chance that the parliamentary party meetings going on at present will be the last before the next general election.

The “think-ins” (what a misnomer: it’s like calling the Rose of Tralee competition the World Chess Championship) are the political equivalent of pre-season friendlies before the Dáil season kicks off in earnest.

What do we learn from them? Very little beyond the mood of TDs and Senators. This year it’s not going to be much different. The two main opposition parties, Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin, will have pushed their byelection candidates for Dublin South West and Roscommon-South Leitrim mercilessly to the foreground at every photo opportunity.

For Labour it will be Tánaiste Joan Burton’s first think-in as party leader and it will be interesting to see how she sets out her stall for the remainder of the Government’s term.

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At the Fine Gael event on Fota Island in Cork the two dominant personalities were not guest speakers but rather Minister for Health Leo Varadkar and Minister for Finance Michael Noonan (Fine Gael is confident enough to create its own narratives). Varadkar needs urgently to administer CPR to the flagging health services but is being told by Taoiseach Enda Kenny there is no money for a defibrillator.

Soft-soaping

And of course there was Noonan doing his well-practised routine of a Glin, Co Limerick, take on Eric Cross’s

The Tailor and Ansty

. He has been telling the troops in his folksy homespun way how he’s soft- soaping all those fellows in Europe to allow us shorten the repayment period for the International Monetary Fund loans. Now where have we heard that before from Noonan? Oh yes, with bank recapitalisation in and after June 2012 – not so much a breakthrough as, well, fell through. To be fair to him, despite the cries of “Wolf, wolf” ringing in our ears, with German backing it might just happen this time with the IMF loans.

It is noteworthy that Coalition parties have been focusing on the immediate in their public deliberations – the budget next month and the forthcoming Dáil term. But like every other party they are acutely aware of the wider context: a quickly looming general election campaign. Coalition strategists are all gearing up for it even though they deny it publicly. Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin are doing it more blatantly – the theme of the latter’s think-in is “ready to govern”.

In that respect we have seen a big change in the Sinn Féin disposition of late. No party has been more diligent in nailing its colours to the mast when it comes to the positions it has adopted. But the prospect of government, no matter how remote, has seen a change in tack. There is one hostage to fortune. It has already said that scrapping property tax will be a condition for it entering government. But this week, significantly, its finance spokesman, Pearse Doherty, pointedly refused to say scrapping water taxes and introducing a wealth tax would also be in the sine qua non category.

A process of mainstreaming is now under way and Sinn Féin is a party in transition, on a journey between its violent paramilitary past and a fully transparent and democratic party, halfway between being an ArmaLite party and being a Carmelite party. Willing to tango it may be but it might find itself unable to woo any prospective suitor.

There is no doubt both opposition parties are proceeding on the basis there will be an election in autumn next year. But both Government parties have insisted the Coalition will last its full term until spring 2016.

Easter 1916 centenary celebrations

That is scarcely believable. When Coalition strategists examine the political landscape in all its granularity they are likely to conclude an autumn 2015 election is more logical than holding off until spring 2016. For one, the last day on which an election can be held is April 3rd, 2016. Easter Sunday is not until April 5th that year, so it will be difficult for the Government parties to capitalise meaningfully on the Easter 1916 centenary celebrations.

The impact of that event might also be more limited that is generally thought – Bertie Ahern’s valedictory speech in Westminster in 2007 was an event smaller in scale but did it butter any parsnips when it came to the general election? Most would say it did not.

Unless the state is a fledgling one, or gripped by a constitutional crisis, elections are won and lost on the economy. It would make no sense for the Government to announce an election budget in October 2015 and then wait for six months until it was all forgotten and, in the meantime, some fool of a Minister had got embroiled in another stupid cock-up.

The logical step would be for an election to be called immediately after a generous budget when the Coalition could benefit from the warm glow of positive public reaction. The likelihood too is that both parties would opt for a joint platform to re-elect the coalition – a Mullingar Accord Mk II.

The problem with that? It’s very unlikely they will get to the magical number of 79 seats unless Burton has added alchemy to her repertoire of political skills.