Negotiators in all three parties say that an agreement can be reached by Thursday or Friday of this week, paving the way for a programme for government to be put to their members for acceptance or rejection. Few, however, are prepared to outline the compromises from all sides that would bring the talks to a successful conclusion and at least one of the parties, the Greens, has serious internal divisions which will make agreement more difficult.
So what happens if there is no agreement? There are four broad possibilities.
1. Keep talking and try again
The process has already busted through a number of deadlines – why not another?
The difficulty here is that the Dáil and Seanad need to pass votes renewing the Offences Against the State Act by June 30th or parts of State’s anti-terror and anti-gangland special powers, including those underpinning the Special Criminal Court, will lapse.
Without a new taoiseach, there are no taoiseach’s nominees to the Seanad, and therefore – the Government’s legal advice says – the Seanad cannot properly pass any votes. And with two weeks required for ratification by the parties, the calendar means that this week is a hard deadline.
There is talk in Government of “workarounds”, according to senior officials, but little faith they would be legally robust. Besides, if the talks can’t reach agreement this week, it will signal a deeper problem than just a lack of time.
2. Government without the Greens
Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are close to agreeing a programme for government. The difficulty is with the Greens, whose policy and cultural outlook remains an ocean away from the two bigger parties.
If an agreement cannot be made with the Greens, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael may seek to form a government with a number of independent TDs, with whom they have been maintaining contact throughout the talks.
This is less attractive to the two parties for a number of reasons. Each independent TD would have to be brought on board individually as, although they have banded together in three groups, each TD can deliver only his own vote. Also, unlike the Greens, they are not a party with a whip.
On the plus side for FF-FG, the price for their support in policy, if not financial, terms would be considerably less than a deal with the Greens.
3. An alternative government
There is a view that if the talks collapse, then Sinn Féin and the Social Democrats could approach the Greens and Fianna Fáil with a view to forming a centre-left government.
This would almost certainly require a change of leader in Fianna Fáil, and any new leader would have to overcome the deep antipathy in the organisation (which is much greater than the reluctance to coalesce with Fine Gael) to a deal with Sinn Féin. But in the midst of a political crisis, sometimes the previously unthinkable becomes possible.
4. A general election
If a government cannot be formed, the only remedy is ultimately that another general election should be held. However, given the pandemic, it is hard to see how an election could practically be held before the autumn.
There is also a question of whether President Michael D Higgins would grant Taoiseach Leo Varadkar a dissolution of the Dáil if he sought one, as he is empowered to do – a question much discussed in political circles at present.
Prompting another general election would be an extraordinary political gamble for the Greens, who would see many of their seats endangered by Sinn Féin and Fine Gael, polls suggest. In that respect, the party now finds itself in the tightest of corners. There are no easy options.
