SUPPORT FOR the Lisbon Treaty has increased significantly since January but there are still a large number of undecided voters who hold the key to the final result, according to the findings of the latest Irish Times /TNS mrbi poll.
The poll showed that 35 per cent of voters intend to vote Yes, up nine points since the last Irish Times poll at the end of January, while the number intending to vote No is 18 per cent, up eight points.
However, 47 per cent of voters either don’t know how they will vote in the referendum on June 12th, or say they won’t vote.
This compares with 64 per cent who were in the “don’t know” category in January.
The poll was conducted last Monday and Tuesday among a representative sample of 1,000 voters in face-to-face interviews at 100 sampling points in all 43 constituencies.
The result clearly reflects the urgency that has been injected into the Yes campaign since Brian Cowen took over as Taoiseach 10 days ago. The Yes side now has a lead of almost two to one with four weeks to go to polling day.
However, there is no room for complacency on the Yes side. The first Irish Times poll during the Nice referendum campaign in 2001 showed the Yes side with a bigger lead of 52 per cent to 21 per cent, yet the No side won a month later.
The poll shows that the hardening of the Yes vote is due to a surge of support among Fianna Fáil voters who are now in favour of the treaty by 47 per cent to 10 per cent. Green voters are also strongly in favour but Fine Gael voters are almost evenly split while Sinn Féin voters are opposed.
The poll reveals a significant difference in the attitudes of men and women to the treaty, with 40 per cent of men in favour of the treaty but just 29 per cent of women in the Yes camp.
The number of undecided women voters is significantly greater than the number of men in that category. The strongest support for the Yes side comes from the better-off ABC1 voters but farmers are now also in favour of the treaty, by contrast with the last poll when they were equally divided for and against.
Older people were much more positively disposed towards voting Yes, with 44 per cent of the over-65s in favour of the treaty and just 11 per cent against.
That compares to a Yes figure of 25 per cent among the 18 to 25s, where 20 per cent intend to vote No.
Across the regions, Dublin and Connacht Ulster are the strongest areas for the treaty, followed by the rest of Leinster, with Munster the weakest region.
When asked for the main reasons why they had decided to vote Yes, keeping Ireland involved in the EU came out on top, followed by the view that it was necessary for our economic future.
Enabling the EU to function more effectively came in third place, followed by the need to protect investment in Ireland and the belief that the EU has been good for this country.
On the No side, the failure to understand what the treaty is about emerged as the biggest reason for taking that side, while safeguarding Ireland’s neutrality came as the second most important reason for a No vote.
Other important reasons given were that the bigger countries or east European countries had too much influence, keeping Irish identity and helping farmers in the world trade talks.
Asked if they understood what the Lisbon Treaty was about, 38 per cent said they didn’t know, 31 per cent said they were vaguely aware of the issues involved, 23 per cent said they understood some of the issues and just 6 per cent said they had a good understanding of what the treaty was about.
However, when asked which of two statements came closest to their view, 43 per cent said Ireland should do all it could to unite fully with the EU while 38 per cent said Ireland should do all it could to protect its independence from the EU and 18 per cent had no opinion.
