THE NETHERLANDS: The collapse of the Dutch centre-right government over immigration policy will lead to an opposition Labour victory in early elections, probably in September or October, an opinion poll showed yesterday.
Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende tendered the government's resignation to Queen Beatrix yesterday after one of his coalition parties withdrew its support over the handling of the citizenship of a Somali-born Dutch lawmaker.
The queen will consult with all parties in coming days.
The collapse of the government, the third since 2002, comes amid public concern over the very immigration and security policies which helped Mr Balkenende win power in 2003.
The country has turned inwards due to immigration and security worries which have been compounded by budget cuts and an unpopular new health insurance scheme. Mr Balkenende will govern with his minority coalition of Christian Democrats (CDA) and VVD Liberals until the fresh elections.
Labour is set to win 44 of the 150 parliamentary seats in the autumn election. The VVD and Christian Democrats would take 33 and 38 seats respectively, according to opinion polls.
But the polls also show it would be uncertain whether Labour could build a majority coalition of left-wing parties.
"Current polls show that we could have a left-wing government after new elections, although it will be a close call," said economist Aline Schuiling at Fortis, adding that Labour could possibly govern with smaller, leftist parties.
If Labour linked up with the Green Left and the Socialist party, the three were still expected to fall 10 seats short of a majority.
The D66 party, which caused the government collapse, would lose half its seats.
Dutch voters backed left-wing parties in local elections three months ago, rejecting anti-immigration populists and the ruling centre-right parties.
The incoming European Union president, Finland's prime minister Matti Vanhanen, said the collapse was not likely to impact on the country's rejection of the EU constitution.
"I don't expect Dutch policy to change rapidly," Mr Vanhanen told reporters in Helsinki. He said nothing could be done on the future of the constitution before the Dutch election and next year's national election in France.
The trigger for the government's collapse was immigration minister Rita Verdonk's threat to revoke the citizenship of Ayaan Hirsi Ali after the popular politician admitted to lying about her name and refugee status on arriving in 1992.
Ms Verdonk withdrew the threat after Ms Hirsi Ali submitted a statement saying she had not intended to lie and that her chosen name, Hirsi Ali, was valid because it was taken from her grandfather according to Somali customs. D66 pulled the plug on the ruling coalition after a two-day debate, saying Ms Verdonk's actions went beyond the limits of public credibility.
Analysts said the government's collapse could delay planned corporate tax cuts that could hit Dutch companies that earn the bulk of their income domestically, although blue chips with overseas operations would feel less of an impact. The blue-chip AEX share index in Amsterdam rose 1.86 per cent yesterday, although there was a broad rally across Europe with the pan-European FTSEurofirst index closing 1.4 per cent higher.