We need to diversify electricity sources to ensure a secure supply and protect the economy, writes Dick Ahlstrom, Science Editor.
Ireland's capacity for wealth creation is critically dependent on a reliable supply of electricity. But with imported fossil fuels now accounting for more than 70 per cent of its production, what would happen to our Celtic Tiger economy if someone literally "pulled the plug"?
Oil and gas are still readily available on international markets, albeit at higher and higher prices that are all passed along to the consumer. But Ibec's energy chief David Manning warns that "if things went pear-shaped, we would be economically undermined".
Electricity prices here have tripled since 2002, and a further 20 per cent price hike is expected later this year. Eurostat pegged Irish industrial electricity prices as second highest in the EU after Cyprus - double the French charges and 25 per cent above the British figure - while our domestic electricity prices were the fifth highest in the EU.
Soaring price is one thing, but a disruption in supply would be very serious given our overwhelming dependence on imported fossil fuels. Thus, creating diversity of supply as a way to escape our oil addiction and improve fuel security is now a key consideration for policy-makers. Minimising the use of fossil fuels for electricity generation is also necessary to help reduce Ireland's greenhouse gas emissions, especially as the coal-fired Moneypoint power station is being allowed to continue to emit more than five million tonnes of carbon dioxide (C02) a year.
The EU target of reaching 13.2 per cent of electricity generation from renewables by 2010 will now be reached, according to the latest projections. Indeed, it has recently been raised to 15 per cent by Minister for Communications, Marine and Natural Resources Noel Dempsey.
Wind power will account for most of this, with smaller contributions from Ardnacrusha and other hydroelectric stations, as well as biomass, which might include the use of short-rotation forestry as fuel for peat-fired power stations in the midlands.
Assuming that the upward curve in oil prices continues, there will be other options such as tidal and wave energy.
A new energy policy document published last week by the Irish Academy of Engineering (IAE) takes the provocative view that we should stop using conventional coal or peat by 2025 and abandon oil and gas use by 2050.
By then, it argues, our electricity mix should be based on nuclear power, renewables and "clean coal" technology.
The chief executive of EirGrid, Dermot Byrne, agrees that diversity of fuel is an important element in security of supply. Established on July 1st, EirGrid is Ireland's transmission system operator, handling the distribution of electricity provided by the ESB and private electricity companies. But Byrne says the nuclear option is unacceptable to the Government and the wider public.
"The reality is, nuclear is not on the agenda in Ireland at the moment," he says. "At some stage, maybe it will be and there are signs of a debate on the issue," he adds, but it is not a runner for now.
Analysts Sue Scott and John FitzGerald at the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) have dismissed nuclear as too expensive for Ireland.
Not only is there a high build cost - up to €3 billion per plant - but there is the hidden cost of dealing with nuclear waste for thousands of years afterwards.
The ESRI says wind power is "now competitive" because of rising oil and gas prices, but farmed energy such as biofuels and wave power are still not economically viable. As a result, wind turbines alone should help us surpass the 2010 renewables target, according to Prof John Ringwood, dean of engineering at NUI Maynooth. We are already approaching 600 megawatts (mw) of installed wind power, and there are contracts agreed for a further 633mw, in the context of an electricity demand that will reach 8,031mw by 2012, according to EirGrid projections.
But wind turbines provide intermittent electricity supplies and, in the long- term, will be self-limiting, according to the IAE report. For 300 days a year, they can supply hundreds of megawatts of power, but when the wind stops, so do the turbines.
The resultant gap must be filled by switching on oil or gas stations to cover peak demand. This is the most expensive electricity to supply and hides the "real cost" of having wind power much beyond 10 to 15 per cent of total supply, the IAE argues.
Interconnectors with Britain remain an option, but both the IAE and the ESRI raise questions about the high cost of building them. The IAE estimates these links will cost about €1 billion and argues that the existing link with Northern Ireland's electricity grid, which can supply up to 1,200mw, is "generally adequate" for our projected demand. "Suggestions that it could be justified by exporting wind power from Ireland to Britain have little economic justification."
Nor is there any guarantee relating to price or continuity of supply; if Britain ran short, it wouldn't dilute its own supply by selling electricity to us or to anyone beyond its borders.
Nonetheless, EirGrid, Ibec and Sustainable Energy Ireland (SEI) all support the interconnector approach as a way to introduce competition, diversify supply and smooth over demand peaks.
This skirts over the fact that when the wind doesn't blow, any power we buy from Britain is likely to be nuclear, given plans announced last week to build at least six new nuclear reactors. But there appear to be few alternatives for future security of supply unless some new and unexpected source of energy arises.
Electricity demand is rising by up to 4 per cent per annum and last year reached a peak of 4,828mw. Current generating capacity stands at about 6,700mw. But many power stations are old and subject to breakdown and more frequent maintenance, which together drain away almost 20 per cent of total capacity.
"The average availability is between 82 and 83 per cent," says EirGrid's Dermot Byrne. By international standards, "it would be relatively low and is probably affected by a small number of poor performing plants". This pushes down electricity capacity much closer to the peak demand, which rises by about 200mw every year.
Two new power stations, Tynagh in Co Galway and Sealrock at Aughinish, Co Limerick, have joined the grid so far this year. A third new generator at Huntstown, near Finglas in north Dublin, run by private supplier Viridian, will follow later this year. Together they will add almost 700mw of capacity to the grid and offset the loss of the Tarbert generating station in Co Kerry, which is to close by 2010.
The new Viridian plant and electricity coming from the offshore wind farm on the Arklow Bank run by Airtricity and GE Energy are typical of the moves by private companies to supply electricity as a result of our liberalised market, according to SEI chief executive David Taylor.
"As we move towards a fully liberalised all-Ireland market, more companies will see opportunities to invest."