Tired of war and high oil prices, Pennsylvanians are in the mood to give George W Bush a bloody nose, reports Denis Staunton
Behind the Woodland String Band and a sombre guitar-player atop a tractor and in front of the Knights of Columbus, Democratic congressional candidate Joe Sestak is the most animated participant in Newtown Square's Fourth of July parade. The retired vice-admiral darts from left to right, shaking hands, waving, hugging and talking about how he can improve life for residents of this comfortable Philadelphia suburb.
Four months ahead of November's congressional elections, Sestak is campaigning as if the vote is tomorrow, rising before dawn to meet commuters on their way to work.
Sestak's zeal could be paying off because he is now running level in the polls with Curt Weldon, the Republican who has held Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district for 19 years.
If the Democrats are to regain control of one or both houses of Congress in November, when one third of the Senate and all of the House of Representatives face re-election, they must win in Pennsylvania, particularly in the suburbs around Philadelphia. A gain of six seats would give Democrats control of the Senate and an extra 15 seats would give them a majority in the House.
Pennsylvania's Republican senator Rick Santorum, a poster boy of the religious right and a close ally of President George W Bush, is trailing Democratic challenger Bob Casey by anything from nine to 18 points, according to polls.
Democrats could pick up three congressional seats in the Philadelphia suburbs alone where, apart from Sestak, Iraq war veteran Patrick Murphy is closing in on Mike Fitzpatrick, while Lois Murphy could snatch from Jim Gerlach the seat he won two years ago by just 6,200 votes.
Democrats and Republicans will be watching how Pennsylvania votes in November for signs of how the US will vote in the 2008 presidential election, because this state of 12 million people often reflects the political direction of the country at large.
"We do look a lot like the rest of the country and the issues are similar but Democratic voters in the west of the state are more conservative than in the east. Pennsylvania is more competitive than most north-eastern states because of social issues. Republican voters in the east are more liberal than Democratic voters in the west," says Dr Terry Madonna, professor of public affairs at Pennsylvania's Franklin and Marshall College.
ONCE THE CAPITAL of America's heavy industry, Pennsylvania has seen its coal mines and steel mills decline in recent decades, with little new industry opening to replace them. The young tend to leave the state in search of jobs, giving Pennsylvania the slowest population growth of any state in the US.
"Pennsylvania is schizophrenic in that the Democrats who live in the west, whose families were part of the great working-class infrastructure and whose sons and daughters have left the state, are very conservative. They began to leave the Democratic Party, first because of the Vietnam War and then because they thought the party was too liberal," says Dr Madonna.
Democrats hope that state treasurer Bob Casey, the anti-abortion, pro-gun son of a popular governor of Pennsylvania, can bring these straying voters back into the party fold.
"The reason the Democrats wanted Bob Casey to run is because they thought he was the guy who could bring back Democrats in the west of the state and get Republicans who think Santorum is too extreme. The Senate campaign began right after [ John] Kerry lost. The next day, people started going to Bob Casey and saying, you have to run for the Senate," says Democratic consultant Larry Ceisler.
A stridently Catholic father of six, Santorum has been in the forefront of Republican campaigns against abortion and gay rights and in favour of faith-based initiatives. In 2003, he compared homosexuality to bigamy, incest and adultery and he has been a consistent critic of birth control.
"I don't think it works. I think it's harmful to women. I think it's harmful to our society to have a society that says that sex outside marriage is something that should be encouraged or tolerated among the young. And we've seen very, very harmful long-term consequences to our society. So birth control to me enables that and I don't think it's a healthy thing for our country," he said last year.
Such rhetoric goes down badly with suburban voters such as Jane Williams, who took part in the Newtown Square parade with three friends from the local women's club. "I couldn't vote for Rick Santorum. I don't agree with what he thinks about freedom to do what you want in the bedroom," she says.
Santorum may be trailing in the polls but he is a formidable campaigner who packs a more powerful intellectual punch than the sluggish Casey. Republican consultant Elliott Curson says that, although Santorum will suffer because of Bush's unpopularity and voters' antipathy towards Republicans, it is too early to write him off.
"It's a disaster for Republicans. What do you do in a time of disaster? You make your opponent look worse," he comments.
Santorum has started doing just that, running TV and radio ads accusing Casey of "dishonest and nasty" campaigning and claiming the Democrat is so busy running for office that he is failing to do his job as state treasurer. The Republican is also turning up the volume on immigration, accusing Democrats of offering an amnesty to an estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants in the US, thousands of whom are Irish.
Sestak says his own tireless campaigning has convinced him that voters are more interested in specific policy issues than in personal criticism of the candidates. "At the very top, the issue is a career with job security, wage security and health security. Number two is the pouring of our national treasure into the tragic misadventure of Iraq. Third is education."
Sestak, who commanded an aircraft carrier battle group with more than 15,000 sailors on 30 ships in the Afghanistan war, says the US should admit it was wrong to invade Iraq and set a date to get out of there.
"We made a mistake going into Iraq. There are other strategic interests throughout the world. I believe we should have a certain date to leave. We've had changing, elusive goals and the situation has deteriorated. The US made a decision. It was wrong. The global war on terror was never in the centre of Iraq."
At the Bustleton Memorial American Legion hall in north-east Philadelphia, veterans from the Vietnam, Korean and second World Wars are unanimous in opposing an immediate withdrawal from Iraq. But second World War veteran Veto Iavecchia says none of his comrades believes the invasion of Iraq was a good idea.
"We shouldn't have been there, but we'll support them as long as they're there. The UN should be working together and coming up with a plan for what to do about this. We'll vote for people who will try to work out a plan with the UN."
John McDonald says the biggest issue for him is immigration and he agrees with Santorum that the reform backed by the Senate amounted to amnesty.
"Send them all back. I'm a second World War veteran and I'm 85 years old. Why the hell should they be given the right to stay here just because some farmer on the border wants cheap labour?"
AS WE SPEAK, a handsome young man wearing a stars and stripes bow-tie and surrounded by youthful supporters sweeps into the hall, handing out campaign leaflets. This is Raj Bhakta, Republican challenger to Democratic congresswoman Allyson Schwartz and a former star of Donald Trump's The Apprentice.
With a Co Longford mother and an Indian father, Bhakta holds an Irish passport and is keen to capitalise on his heritage in a district where the Irish are the biggest ethnic group. "I'm the only Irish-American candidate called Raj Bakhta," he says.
Bhakta acknowledges that it is an uphill struggle for Republican candidates in Pennsylvania but he hopes to benefit from widespread anger against Congress.
"It's not a good time to be a Republican but theanti-incumbent feeling is so strong we've got a good chance," he says.
Dr Madonna predicts that Pennsylvania could prove a bloodbath for Republicans in November as voters punish the party for the Iraq war and high fuel prices. "Republicans in the suburbs feel their party is leaving them. They see it drifting too far to the right. Since 2000, there have been 10 statewide elections and the Democrats have won seven. The future looks much better for the Democrats - unless they do something stupid."