EUROPEAN DIARY: If Europeans could choose the next president of the United States of America, there is little doubt that John Kerry would win by a landslide. If the choice were left to the elites in Brussels and other European capitals who shape EU foreign policy, however, the result could be quite different.
Despite the disdain most EU diplomats and politicians feel towards George W. Bush, many of them are quietly hoping that the president will secure a second term in office next month.
On the face of it, such an aspiration on the part of committed European integrationists appears perverse. After all, the president has torn up international agreements, poured scorn on the multilateral approach to solving problems and precipitated, through the Iraq war, a painful foreign policy split within the EU.
For his part, Mr Kerry is a committed multilateralist with two decades of foreign policy experience who is a familiar figure at international gatherings such as the World Economic Forum. To cap it all, Mr Kerry speaks French.
European policy-makers know that a President Kerry would not jettison all his predecessor's foreign policy positions and that the "war on terror" will almost certainly continue regardless of the outcome of next month's election. Most European governments would like to see Washington put more pressure on Israel to engage in negotiations with the Palestinians but few expect Mr Kerry to affect such a change.
Europeans believe, however, that the tone in Washington would change under a Kerry presidency and that a new administration would be more receptive to arguments from outside. Mr Kerry speaks the language of international co-operation and, unlike Mr Bush, sees strong alliances as essential to the US national interest.
Mr Bush and Mr Kerry both want to reduce the US military presence in Iraq and both would welcome assistance from Europe. The problem for some EU policy-makers is that some European governments that will happily rebuff any request for help from Mr Bush might find Mr Kerry more difficult to refuse.
"A Bush win would be more comfortable," one senior EU diplomat told me last week.
The breach with Washington over Iraq was traumatic for Paris and Berlin - but particularly for Berlin, where the transatlantic alliance has traditionally been as important a foreign policy element as the Franco-German relationship. Many German officials and politicians are yearning to return to the American embrace that served post-war Germany so well - first with the Marshall Plan for economic construction and 40 years later, in facilitating German unification.
EU officials who dream of a single European foreign policy and an EU defence identity that could supplant NATO fear that a Kerry presidency could superficially heal the transatlantic rift without actually addressing the underlying tension between EU and US interests. Some in Berlin and Paris are also concerned that Mr Kerry could persuade their governments to send soldiers to Iraq without giving Europeans greater influence over broader US policy in the Middle East.
The European integrationists who fear a Kerry victory see hidden opportunities in a second Bush term. Few share the conventional wisdom that a second Bush term would be greatly different from the first and most expect the president and his neo-conservative advisers to pursue the same foreign policy agenda that brought about the Iraq war.
Some believe that four more years of Mr Bush would put so great a strain on Washington's closest European allies that a number of countries, particularly in central and eastern Europe, could conclude that their interests lie in closer security co-operation within the EU. Some diplomats are confident that a second Bush term could even drive a wedge between Washington and London, prompting Mr Tony Blair or his successor to engage more enthusiastically in Europe.
Among those who are privately praying for four more years of Mr Bush are EU foreign policy analysts who believe that the neo-conservative political project must end in utter failure for the transatlantic relationship to be rebalanced. Cooler heads warn that such a gamble could have serious consequences, among which will be the complication of Mr John Bruton's already delicate task as the EU's new ambassador to Washington.
