"Larne blockade action will do Beggs no harm" was a headline to an article on the East Antrim constituency before last year's Westminster election. On that occasion, the sitting Ulster Unionist MP, Mr Roy Beggs, was duly returned without difficulty.
This time around, though, things might be different. For a start, the Roy Beggs in this election is the MP's son, making his election debut. Many observers feel that Beggs senior's involvement in Drumcree, the blockade of Larne port and his opposition to the Northern Ireland Agreement might just rebound on Beggs junior.
"A lot of people blame Roy Beggs senior for the decision by Stena Sealink to move its operations from Larne to Belfast," the main Alliance candidate, Mr Sean Neeson, says. "And the sight of him sharing a platform with Ian Paisley two weeks before the referendum caused further discontent."
Mr Neeson is reflecting a new pragmatism palpable in this mixed industrial, agricultural and commuter-belt constituency. Jobs are hard to come by and politicians have to factor in the economic impact of their actions before they take to the barricades.
Beggs junior - a 35-year-old technical manager who is described as a "soft No" on the agreement - should be safe enough for one of the six seats. The real question is whether he can bring in one or both of his running-mates, Mrs May Steele and Mr Ken Robinson. Last year his father captured almost 39 per cent of the vote, equivalent to about 2 1/2 quotas in the Assembly election. With nationalist transfers, the UUP could capture three seats.
However, Mr Neeson will also be chasing these transfers in the hope of bringing in his colleague, Mr Stewart Dickson. The first Catholic mayor of Carrickfergus, Mr Neeson is hoping to take advantage of his high profile within Alliance to win across-the-board support.
East Antrim stretches from the Belfast suburbs of Whiteabbey and Jordanstown to the coastal towns of Larne and Carrickfergus and then up to the more southerly Glens of Antrim around Carn lough. This used to be a Protestant industrial heartland, centred on giant fibre factories such as the long-closed Courtaulds and ICI. Transport is a major issue, as the volume of commuter traffic continues to grow. The roads and motorways seem luxurious by the Republic's standards, but local politicians want to see further improvements and they want to have a say in their implementation.
The UUP's Ken Robinson, a retired school principal, says he is "fed up being a second-class citizen in my own country. I saw it in school, how decisions, however wrong, were always being made over our heads."
Mr Jack McKee, a long-time supporter of Ian Paisley, is leading the DUP challenge. He denies wanting to "wreck" the Assembly, but says he will be "policing" the promises made by Tony Blair and David Trimble - "promises I fully expect them to break". If Mr McKee, a councillor from Larne, can improve on the 19 per cent he achieved last year, his running-mate, Mr David Hilditch, might just be in with a chance of the last seat.
Mr Danny O'Connor is running again for the SDLP, but is unlikely to pick up more than half the nationalist vote in the constituency, estimated at 10 per cent. Sinn Fein is standing Mrs Chrissie McAuley, a councillor in Belfast who garnered 500 votes in the Westminster election. The party has little support outside the coastal village of Carnlough.
The first four seats are expected to go to the UUP (two), DUP and Alliance. The DUP, Alliance and Belfast man Mr Terence Dick for the Conservative Party are likely to slug it out for the last two seats.
Candidates: Terence Dick (Conservative); Roy Beggs junior, Ken Robinson, May Steele (UUP); David Hilditch, Jack McKee (DUP); Danny O'Connor (SDLP); Chrissy McAuley (Sinn Fein); Stewart Dickson, Sean Neeson (Alliance); James Barr McKissock (NLP); William Greer (PUP); Robert Lindsay Mason (ProAgreement); Tommy Kirkham (UDP); Roger Hutchinson (UKU); James Brown (Unionist)
Westminster 1997 - UUP 39 per cent; Alliance 20 per cent; DUP 19 per cent; Conservative 7 per cent; PUP 5 per cent; SDLP 5 per cent; Independent 3 per cent; Sinn Fein 2 per cent; NLP 0.2 per cent.
