A referendum in both parts of the island to ratify the St Andrews Agreement in the spring now appears unlikely, following a clear indication from the Northern Secretary, Peter Hain, yesterday that new elections to the Northern Assembly, rather than a referendum, is the favoured option.
The Taoiseach had announced the Government's intention of holding a referendum in the Republic to give constitutional underpinning to the St Andrews Agreement. This approach was opposed by Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny, who maintained that constitutional change was unnecessary.
Speaking at the meeting of the British-Irish Inter-Parliamentary Body in Belfast yesterday, Mr Hain said that while a decision on whether or not to hold a referendum in the Republic was a matter for the Irish Government, it was his view that the St Andrews Agreement did not involve changes in the Belfast Agreement of a constitutional kind.
He was responding to a question from the Fine Gael Justice spokesman, Jim O'Keeffe, who asked him his views on the constitutional implications.
Mr Hain said that if the St Andrews Agreement was implemented as planned there would be some kind of consultative process with the voters in February or March of next year. either through, a referendum, North and South, or elections to the Assembly.
Accepting that the St Andrews Agreement did not involve a constitutional change in the Belfast Agreement, he said it was a matter for the Irish Government and the Attorney General, Rory Brady, to decide on whether they would have a referendum. He added that one of the problems about a referendum was that there would have to be financial backing from the state for both the yes and no campaigns.
Mr Hain said that the two largest parties in the North, the DUP and Sinn Féin, favoured an election rather than a referendum with the DUP in particular being attached to the notion of an election in order to give them both a clear mandate and a four-year term of office.
He said that the next Assembly election is scheduled for May 2008 but there was an argument about whether it made sense to have an election at that stage, when the Executive would only have been in power for a year, or whether it would be better to have one immediately so that it could have a clear four-year term ahead of it.
Mr Hain said he was "pretty optimistic" that the St Andrews Agreement would work and he said that the current glitches were just that and should not prove insurmountable.
"The growth and economic advance in the Republic has turned it into a global success story. There has never been a more favourable time to have a permanent political settlement," he said.
When asked whether the Republic should contribute financially to the development of the Northern economy he pointed out that funding had been provided for Derry Airport and that similar cross-border funding made sense.
He said that there had been pressure from the Republic to develop the Ulster Canal and it was an obvious case for funding from the southern side of the Border.
"They have the money at the moment. We don't," he said.
