The absence of a front-runner in the race for European Commission president will put pressure on the Taoiseach to accept the post, writes Denis Staunton
European Union leaders' failure last week to agree on a successor to Mr Romano Prodi as Commission President exposed enduring tensions among the largest member-states.
The bitter exchanges over dinner in Brussels on Thursday evening focused on the candidacy of Belgium's prime minister, Mr Guy Verhofstadt, leaving the big states divided according to their positions on the US-led war in Iraq.
France and Germany, which opposed the war, supported Mr Verhofstadt but Britain and Italy were determined to block the Belgian, who organised a mini-summit on the eve of the war aimed at deepening defence co-operation among its opponents. The row also highlighted a struggle for influence within the EU between the Franco-German alliance, which has traditionally served as a motor for European integration and a new alliance, led by Britain and including some of the new member-states in central and eastern Europe.
"You can feel the difference with these new countries coming into the EU sitting around the table," Mr Tony Blair said after the meeting.
During the dinner, the French President, Mr Jacques Chirac and Germany's Mr Gerhard Schröder emphasised their role as major contributors to the EU budget, a point that may have been directed towards the new member-states, all of which are net recipients from the budget.
In the days before the summit, the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, had asked all the leaders to inform him if they objected to Mr Verhofstadt, who was the front-runner to succeed Mr Prodi.
Only three replied, but by the time the leaders arrived in Brussels, it was clear that opposition to the Belgian was too great to allow him to secure the necessary qualified majority.
On Thursday morning, the centre-right European People's Party (EPP), the largest group in the European Parliament, announced that it was backing the External Relations Commissioner, Mr Chris Patten, to succeed Mr Prodi. Mr Patten had earlier made clear to the Taoiseach that he did not wish to be considered as a candidate, but he allowed his name to go forward on Thursday following a request by the British Conservative leader, Mr Michael Howard.
According to senior EU officials, it was clear over dinner that Mr Patten was in a position to win more votes than Mr Verhofstadt but his support was also insufficient to secure a qualified majority. Meanwhile, Luxembourg's prime minister, Mr Jean-Claude Juncker, the most popular choice among EU leaders, restated to the Taoiseach his determination to remain in his present job.
Both Mr Patten and Mr Verhofstadt withdrew from the race on Friday, leaving at least seven candidates in the field, but no frontrunner.
The newest name to be discussed is that of Portugal's Prime Minister, Mr José Manuel Durão Barroso, who has the advantage of belonging to a centre-right party and hailing from a small country.
He claims he does not want the job and suggested to Portuguese journalists that he is remaining in the race to promote the cause of his compatriot, Mr Antonio Vitorino, currently Justice and Home Affairs Commissioner.
The candidate with most support may be Austria's Chancellor, Mr Wolfgang Schüssel, who enhanced his prospects by acting as a spokesman for the EU's small states during Friday's negotiations. He enjoys support among new member-states but is likely to be opposed by a number of western European countries, including Belgium and France, on account of his decision in 2000 to share power with Dr Jörg Haider's far-right Freedom Party.
The EU's foreign policy chief, Mr Javier Solana, announced yesterday that he would find it hard to resist the job if it was offered to him.
"I think there are people who can do it better than I . . . but if there was a consensus request by the political leaders of the European Union, it would be very hard for me to say no," he said.
Mr Solana has the advantage of understanding the European system thoroughly but, as a socialist, he could face opposition from the European Parliament. Support from the government of his own country, Spain, is understood to be lukewarm.
Finland's former prime minister, Mr Paavo Lipponen, is also a socialist and he labours under the further disadvantage of being a painfully ponderous speaker. Denmark's prime minister, Mr Anders Fogh Rasmussen, is a liberal who conducted a successful EU Presidency in 2002, but Denmark's refusal to join the euro-zone could count against him.
The president of the European Parliament, Mr Pat Cox, is popular among EU leaders but EU officials say that his candidacy is inhibited by the fact that he lacks a sponsoring government.
The EU presidency precludes the Taoiseach from promoting an Irish candidate, so Mr Cox's best hope of securing the job may lie in a postponement of the decision until next month, when the Netherlands takes over the presidency.
Reports over the weekend suggested that the French Foreign Minister, Mr Michel Barnier, could become a candidate but few EU diplomats regard him as a likely successor to Mr Prodi.
The absence of a front-runner is certain to increase pressure on the Taoiseach to accept the job himself, as a figure acceptable to large and small states and to Old and New Europe alike.