MINISTER FOR Foreign Affairs Micheál Martin dismissed as "premature" speculation surrounding a second referendum in the spring or of a two-speed Europe in which Ireland was left behind.
Mr Martin was responding to a number of comments from prominent European politicians to the effect that a second referendum was inevitable for Ireland.
"We don't want to be left behind obviously. The result of the referendum is important, and the underlying reasons behind the results. But there is also the context of where we stand in terms of the European Union into the future," he said.
"Clearly our experience to date has been that we have been at the heart of it. We want to very much protect our position in that context. But without question, we are going to have to wait as we discover and determine our response over the next couple of months." Mr Martin told The Irish Timesthat the Government would detail the mechanism of its comprehensive analysis in the next few weeks.
"We have the outcome of the referendum. It poses a very significant challenge to us. The road ahead is not going to be easy. I would not like anyone to think that 'X' or 'Y' is going to happen and then, slam dunk! That is not the way we see it."
Ireland winning a concession on one issue, such as retention of the 27 commissioners, would be insufficient. "It's much more complex than that. We are going to do a comprehensive analysis and there will be a number of strands to that. One suggestion [the retention of the commissioners] was mentioned there. But there is a range of issues that have surfaced that we need to analyse."
Yesterday, Luxembourg's prime minister Jean-Claude Juncker said that the adoption of the Lisbon Treaty would allow for the body of 27 commissioners to be maintained. He said the current arrangements were governed by the Nice Treaty, which will require a reduction in the number of commissioners before mid-2009.
Mr Juncker, in an interview on RTÉ's This Week programme, said he did not believe the Lisbon Treaty would survive a second Irish No, and warned of a two-speed Europe in that eventuality. "We would have to come to two-speed Europe, where those who were willing to take further integration steps will be free to do so and those wanting to step away from European ambitions would be invited to do so."
A spokesman for French president Nicolas Sarkozy said over the weekend that he could not see any other option than the holding of a second referendum.
Axel Poniatowski, an MP in the French Assembly and chair of the foreign affairs committee, told Newstalk that Europe would be "paralysed" if it had to operate under the Nice Treaty alone.
Asked what would happen if Ireland was to reject Lisbon for a second time, he said: "I think we will have to find a specific statute for Ireland because I think the 26 other countries will go ahead."
Fine Gael MEP Avril Doyle said yesterday she was unsure whether Mr Sarkozy's visit to Ireland on July 11th would be helpful.
"I'm a bit nervous about Sarkozy. He's a little bit unpredictable in terms of what he says and how he says it. He's colourful, but whether he'll help the cause, help the understanding of Europe, help connect people to what the real issues in the Lisbon Treaty were, I'm not sure," she told TV3's The Political Party.
