Profile:He lives for Fianna Fáil and showed a steady hand when the election looked lost, but has 'Biffo' got what it takes to succeed Bertie, asks Deaglán de Bréadún.
We have seen the future and it's name is Brian Cowen. Heir apparent, leader-in-waiting, dauphin, crown prince, the Tánaiste and Minister for Finance is Fianna Fáil's and the country's anointed one since the laying-on of hands by Bertie Ahern in the aftermath of the general election.
Any bookmakers who gave odds against Brian Cowen becoming next Fianna Fáil leader and Taoiseach would arouse doubts about their seriousness and even their sanity. Sure, we have all been around long enough to know there are no certainties in Irish politics but Cowen is, to put it mildly, a strong prospect.
If the prophecies come true, he will be the first taoiseach to come from Offaly. His roots in the midlands go deep and at one time he was chosen to play football for the county team, although he didn't keep his place.
His place of origin made him a natural for the nickname "Biffo", which is an acronym for a "Big Ignorant Fecker From Offaly" (and that's the more polite version). The term was originally applied to all Offalymen by those who were of course spiteful and jealous over the county's success in hurling, football, politics and other spheres. Cowen has a highly therapeutic ability to laugh at himself and has insisted that "Biffo" actually stands for "Bright Intelligent Fellow From Offaly".
Whereas the incumbent Taoiseach is sometimes said to be attractive to women, there are rather fewer people who would describe Brian Cowen as handsome. The Rev Ian Paisley made fun of his appearance by suggesting that his lips got their shape from being glued to the floor as punishment when he was a small boy, but Cowen took it in good part and laughed as heartily as anyone else as Paisley did his usual comic turn.
Cowen can dish it out as well as take it. They still talk about his warm-up speech for Albert Reynolds at a Fianna Fáil Ardfheis in 1992 when he brought the house down with his remark about coalition with the Progressive Democrats: "When in doubt, leave them out." He is a superb mimic, delivering wickedly accurate impersonations of colleagues and fellow politicians who need to be taken down a peg or two in Cowen's book.
AT A MORE serious level, Cowen's intelligence is undisputed. His ability to master a complex brief makes him a joy to officials and civil servants, although critics say he can be over-reliant on the "Yes Minister" brigade and sometimes allows himself to be too easily steered by the mandarins.
What does Cowen stand for? In a word, or rather two words, Fianna Fáil. For some it may be a flag of convenience, but it is part of Cowen's DNA. Non-violent republicanism, egalitarian instincts combined with political pragmatism, and a strong sense that, no matter how well we are doing at present we mustn't forget where we came from, these are all key elements of Cowen's make-up.
His devotion to Fianna Fáil includes complete loyalty to the leader of the day. Whatever his private feelings may be about Bertie Ahern's apparent desire to stay on for virtually a full term, there is little or no chance that Cowen will mount a "heave" against him. Whereas Cowen and Ahern are not considered particularly close - the enigmatic Bertie has few intimates - he has a high respect for the offices of party leader and taoiseach and for political and state institutions in general. There will be no Tony Blair-Gordon Brown jostling for position in this government, and there are even those who claim Cowen would prefer to be Ireland's next European commissioner instead of our next Taoiseach.
As finance minister for nearly three years now, he has shown himself to be capable but cautious. Not for him the flamboyant innovation and two-fingers-to-the-establishment approach of his predecessor Charlie McCreevy. Suffice to say that, since Cowen took over in Merrion Street, few would accuse him of taking any decision that would adversely affect the state of the economy and its prospects for the future.
He is, in essence, a safe pair of hands, as was seen also in his performance as Minister for Foreign Affairs from January 2000 to September 2004. Cowen was at all times careful not to alienate the Bush administration as it plunged into the Iraqi conflict and held firm against demands that the Shannon stopover facility be denied to US forces on their way to the war zone.
He majored on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, where he was strictly impartial and even-handed at a political level, although the humanitarian situation of the Palestinians aroused his personal sympathy. After the Israeli onslaught on the official residence and headquarters of Yasser Arafat in Ramallah, Cowen was clearly appalled by the carnage and the thought that an elected president of a people could be treated in such a manner. Palestinian sources still express their gratitude to Cowen for raising their plight in a forceful manner with then US secretary of state, Colin Powell, when other foreign ministers and diplomats bit their tongues and said little or nothing.
Cowen's attitude to the European Union is very positive, without being sycophantic. One of his aides characterised it as neither "Europhile" nor "Eurosceptic" but "Eurorealist", and he took a strong line during the election on the need to maintain Ireland's all-important right to set its own rate of corporation tax, which is such a major factor in attracting foreign investment and jobs.
WHEREAS COWEN'S STATURE in political circles has always been high, he was not quite a household name until the recent general election, when he came into his own. Bertie Ahern adopted a presidential approach, playing up his non-confrontational, man-of-the-people characteristics.
It was a "soft cop, hard cop" routine with Cowen, in a phrase he borrowed from an Australian politician, seeking to roast the Opposition slowly on the barbecue.
At first, it didn't go down very well. Reaction to his truculent demeanour on television was unfavourable. But everything changed halfway through the campaign when the Progressive Democrats had a political heart attack over Ahern's finances and Michael McDowell demanded a statement from the Taoiseach on the matter. Cowen and fellow ministers Dermot Ahern and Micheál Martin had a critical meeting with the Taoiseach before going to face the media and inform them that Ahern would issue such a statement.
Cowen often looks quite bored at such occasions, wishing he was elsewhere as he effortlessly bats away another question. But it was a different Biffo, coldly clinical and forensic, at the Treasury Building news conference that afternoon. This time Brian was playing for keeps.
It was a turning point in the campaign. With his initial early-morning dash to the Áras to dissolve the Dáil and then a series of unhappy media encounters, Ahern seemed to have lost his touch and even some of his nerve. Cowen steadied the ship, setting out the party's stall for the voters and highlighting the alleged superiority of its wares as against those on offer from the Opposition. Everything went more or less swimmingly for him after that and, when Fianna Fáil edged back into government with the help of the Greens and others, Cowen received at least as much of the credit as Bertie himself.
AT A PERSONAL level, Cowen's penchant for "a few jars with the lads" has contributed to his enormous popularity in the parliamentary party.
As he edges closer to the throne, every aspect of his personality and behaviour will doubtless come under scrutiny, but this writer reported on his activities as foreign minister over a four-year period in Africa, the Middle East, Europe and the US and never observed that his performance as a minister was in any way impaired or affected by alcohol.
A solicitor by profession, Cowen was only 24 years old when first elected to the Dáil in the 1984 Laois-Offaly byelection precipitated by the untimely death of his father, Bernard "Ber" Cowen, at the age of 52. A devoted family man, Cowen and his wife Mary live in Tullamore with their two daughters. Like his party leader, he is sports mad and, for the two of them, politics is the greatest sport of all.
The Cowen File
Who is he?Brian Cowen, Tánaiste and Minister for Finance
Why is he in the news?Bertie Ahern's declared favourite to succeed him
Most appealing characteristics: Intelligent, articulate, straight-talking
Least appealing characteristic:Can be aggressive at times
Most likely to say:"Fianna Fáil and the Irish people are the perfect marriage"
Least likely to say:"Maybe the Opposition have a point after all"