An overwhelming majority of Irish people would vote in favour of divorce if a referendum on the issue were held now, according to the latest Irish TimesTNS mrbi opinion poll. A clear majority of voters also believes that the introduction of divorce has not undermined the institution of marriage.
On the 10th anniversary of the introduction of divorce, 75 per cent of those polled said they would vote in favour of divorce if a referendum were held now, compared with just 16 per cent who said they would vote against and 9 per cent who had no opinion or didn't know how they would vote.
This is in stark contrast to the extraordinarily close vote on the issue a decade ago. In the referendum held in November 1995, 50.3 per cent of people voted Yes and 49.7 per cent voted No. It was the closest referendum result in the history of the State.
If a referendum were held now, women would be marginally more likely than men to vote in favour. Voters in Dublin are more strongly in favour than those in the rest of the State. In Dublin 81 per cent are now in favour with just 7 per cent against and 11 per cent who don't know.
In terms of age, there was a wide variation between the youngest category of voters, 18 to 23, who were strongest in support of divorce at 83 per cent, and the oldest category, the over- 65s, who were least enthusiastic, with 53 per cent saying they would vote Yes. Voters in all other age categories were close to the average in expressing overwhelming support for a Yes vote.
When it comes to social class, middle-class voters were the strongest in favour of a Yes vote, but working-class voters were almost equally enthusiastic. Among farmers, however, the result was much closer, with 51 per cent saying they would vote Yes and 35 per cent saying No. This was by far the closest result among any category polled.
There was little variation across party lines. Among Fianna Fáil voters 73 per cent said they would vote Yes now. Fine Gael voters were more inclined to say Yes, with 77 per cent supporting divorce. Among Labour voters 80 per cent said they would vote Yes, 81 per cent of Greens supporters said they would vote Yes, while Sinn Féin voters were most strongly in favour, with 82 per cent saying Yes.
The poll was conducted last Monday and Tuesday, January 29th and 30th, among a representative sample of 1,000 voters at 100 sampling points in all 43 constituencies.
Asked if they thought the introduction of divorce had undermined the institution of marriage or not, a clear majority, 64 per cent, said it had not, whereas 24 per cent thought it had and 12 per cent didn't know.
The pattern of responses was similar to that on the issue of divorce itself, with people living in Dublin, the young and those in the better-off social categories most strongly of the view that divorce had not undermined marriage.
Older people were more inclined to think that it had.
In Dublin 18 per cent thought divorce had undermined marriage, while the figure was 23 per cent in Munster, 27 per cent in the rest of Leinster and 32 per cent in Connacht-Ulster. Among the over-65s the figure was also 32 per cent.
Farmers were the only group where a majority thought that divorce had undermined marriage. Farmers said it had done so by a margin of 45 per cent to 37 per cent.
There are some wide cross-party variations on this issue, with Greens supporters more inclined than others to say divorce had undermined marriage and Labour supporters least inclined to take that view.
Vast majority of voters would now support divorce; Support from women increases dramatically: page 6; Editorial comment: page 15
