IT must be enough to make Dick Spring think about cashing in his air miles and applying for a globetrotting UN post. In a bad time for politics in general it has been a grim months for the Labour Party.
It started with the latest opinion poll showing the party failing to benefit from any feel good factor. Labour scored just 10 per cent unchanged since the last poll and almost half the party's share of the vote in the last general election. Mr Spring's personal rating was also down a point to 51 per cent.
Meanwhile, the Government as a whole, and John Bruton and Proinsias de Rossa personally, enjoyed the glow of an election Budget, with significant increases.
This week two Labour TDs announced their intention not to seek re election: Moosajee Bhamjee in Clare and the Minister for Equality and Law Reform, Mervyn Taylor, in Dublin South West.
The latest announcements make a total of three Labour TDs who will not be running in the next general election. The Tipperary North TD John Ryan announced his intentions last year. Fifteen TDs across the parties have decided not to run this time around.
Mr Ryan's replacement candidate, Kathleen O'Meara, a former adviser to Eithne Fitzgerald, is expected to have "a lot do to" to win a seat.
The three retirements could result in the loss of four Labour seats. Mervyn Taylor had a safe Labour seat in Dublin South West. Fellow Labour TD Eamon Walsh is not expected to retain his place in the Dail without the benefit of transfers from Mr Taylor. He faces strong challenges from Fianna Fail's Conor Lenihan and Senator Brian Hayes of Fine Gael.
The outlook in North Tipperary is unpredictable, according to one Labour source, but the likelihood is that Labour will lose out. The optimistic scenario is that the former Minister for Transport, Energy and Communications, Mr Michael Lowry, polls well and Labour benefits from the transfers.
In Clare, Dr Bhamjee, whose victory in the last election was a great surprise, was not expected to be re elected. Now that he has stepped down, the president of the Irish Countrywomen's Association, Bridin Twist, is expected to announce she will seek Labour's nomination in Clare this weekend. Many Labour Party members will be hoping she comes on board.
"She would be a very good solid middle of the road candidate that anybody inclined to vote for Labour would vote for," one Labour TD said.
Political commentators have predicted that Labour will lose nine of its 32 seats in the next general election. Privately Labour TDs admit they are facing the prospect of a term in opposition.
Dublin South Central Labour TD Pat Upton said the retirements of the two older TDs came as no surprise to anyone. And it was an unexpected coincidence that both Mr Taylor and Dr Bhamjee announced their decisions in the same week. He is optimistic and predicts that Labour could gain seats in South Kildare with Senator Jack Wall and in Donegal North East with Senator Sean Maloney.
He said the party is preparing policies on various areas and these may be aired at the party conference in April. "I wouldn't have any doubt at all that the party has to reposition itself. I think we've seen that already in relation to crime, with the Labour party making it clear that it is not soft on crime."
Another party source said the electoral strategy would be very simple. "We will look to be reelected as a government." Party sources point to an undecided electorate, with everything to play for in the weeks before polling day.
There are many references to the 1992 pendulum when the floating vote swung in Labour's favour and almost doubled its predicted vote. The indications are that the pendulum may swing the other way this time, with the rise in popularity of the Progressive Democrats and especially party leader Mary Harney.
However, one Labour Party source argues that the PDs have not laid the same groundwork. "All of the [Labour] TDs elected in 1992 were elected as councillors in 1990. For the PDs to replicate what we did in 92 they'd have to have the same organisational structure."
There is frustration that the party has become the whipping boy for the foul ups of its Government partners. The latest poll results were seen by many as an undeserved slap in the face, with Fine Gael support rising on the crest of a Budget that the party believes was Labour driven.
"In terms of policy, Labour has been driving the engine of this Government and if we don't get credit for that, it's at least partly our own fault," one source said.
Labour's own research has shown that Mr Spring's international role, particularly during the EU presidency, is seen as worthy rather than vote worthy. His standing with non Fianna Fail voters was found to be high, a party source said, but Fianna Fail voters were found to be "positively antagonistic" towards him, possibly a legacy of the 1994 government collapse.
"There is the general feedback that he is more respected than liked. So we are going to have to humanise him a bit more."
The party has been here before. In his book Labour: The Price of Power published in 1986, former Labour TD and senator John Horgan described the party's history as a cycle of decline and recovery.
Was Labour becoming "the cure for which there is no known disease?" he asked. Then six years later the comeback party came back on a wave of support for the anti politician's politician.
Now that Labour is the establishment, the logic follows that the floating vote will find somewhere else to dock. "There is a perceived wisdom that, Labour is going to be decimated, one source said. "But most commentators find it very difficult to mark down those seats that the Labour Party is going to lose."
Even the most optimistic admit that the next election will be a tough battle. "By and large the people most surprised at elections are Government ministers," one party source said. "They may spend an hour and a half a day thinking about elections whereas those on the opposition benches think about nothing else all day."
Almost 14 years ago Dick Spring told the ITGWU annual conference that Labour got 90 per cent of the blame when things went wrong in government but only 9 per cent of the vote at election time.
The figures look remarkably fresh today.
