As a political weathervane, byelections are notoriously unreliable.
Until Patrick Nulty of Labour won the Dublin West byelection in late 2011, a Government party had not won a byelection for over 30 years, since Fianna Fáil's Noel Treacy's victory in Galway East.
It follows, therefore, that in modern Irish political history the rule is the opposition tends to be the main beneficiary.
However, that does not necessarily mean the main opposition parties will benefit. Electors view such elections as a unique event with its own circumstances and often ditch party preference for local or other considerations. Independent candidates such as Seamus Healy, Catherine Murphy and Maureen O'Sullivan have all made the breakthrough in byelections.
There is another powerful factor and that is a familial connection. The sons and daughters of deputies who have died in office have tended to perform very well in byelections.
Enda Kenny, Maire Geoghegan Quinn, Brian Cowen, Simon Coveney, Mildred Fox, Mary Coughlan and the late Brian Lenihan junior all won byelections after the deaths of their fathers. It is not always a certainty, the late Seamus Brennan's son Shay stood unsuccessfully in the Dublin South byelection in 2009 but then he came up against a full-blown celebrity candidate in RTÉ's George Lee who stood for Fine Gael.
On paper, the upcoming byelection in Meath East will be Fine Gael's to lose. The party garnered over 40 per cent of the vote in the 2011 election and took two of the three seats in the constituency. The third was taken by its coalition partner Labour, whose candidate should transfer heavily to Fine Gael, if eliminated.
In addition, the party's chosen candidate is expected to be Helen McEntee, the daughter of the late Deputy. The family is really well known in the constituency and Shane's brother Gerry is an All Ireland winning former country footballer and a high profile surgeon. Helen herself has gained a lot of political experience, having worked with her father in the Dáil, and more latterly in the Department of Agriculture.
That said, it's not going to be be a foregone conclusion by any means. Fine Gael made some grandiose promises and commitments before the election which it failed to implement and it has also pushed through very tough and unpopular measures in what seemed like continuity from the previous government. There will undoubtedly be a protest factor in the vote and its support levels will certainly receded.
Realistically, at this stage, the main threat will come from Fianna Fáil. The party once ruled the roost in Meath East and won two seats here in 2007. However, in 2011 its share of the vote plummeted by 24 points from 43 per cent to 19 per cent. While the party can expect to get a substantial increase in first preferences this time around, there is still residual resentment towards the party in the large commuter belt town on the border with Co Dublin.
Its candidate is Thomas Byrne, now a senator and formerly a TD. He is a strong candidate and was selected at a very well attended convention on Thursday week. With its upsurge in opinion polls, Fianna Fáil springing a surprise is not without the bounds of possibility but it looks less probable than a victory for the incumbent part. The party will spare no effort and has been quietly campaigning in the constituency for a month now.
Sinn Féin has not fared as well in Meath East as it has in Meath West where Peadar Tóibin won a seat in 2011. It won just less than 9 per cent of the vote at the time of the general election and will be looking to its new candidate, Darren O'Rourke to consolidate its support base. He currently works in Leinster House with that party's health spokesman Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin.
Labour did very well here last time around, almost doubling its share of the vote, allowing Dominic Hannigan to win a first seat for the party in the constituency. Recent opinion polls suggests that the Government party that will bear the brunt of voter anger will be Labour and whatever candidate it choses will struggle. The party is expected to hold its selection convention in short order. It has two sitting councillors here: Eoin Holmes and Niamh McGowan. Ms McGowan said yesterday that she was not interested in allowing her name go forward.
The Workers' Party have named Seamus McDonagh as its candidate. He is involved with the anti household and water charge campaign in the areas.
The only imponderable may be a high profile independent candidate arriving onto the scene. Such a person could do well because byelections provide a good opportunity for a candidate to tap into public sentiment that says 'none of the above'.
On balance, however, it still looks like Fine Gael's election to lose.
