Had this been a horse race, the bookies would have been slaughtered. Odds-on favourite Brian Cowen defied top weight and galloped off with the big prize in yesterday's Government Mid-term Reshuffle Handicap Hurdle, as every tipster in the State had predicted.
And just as inevitably, Micheal Martin, Michael Woods and Frank Fahey followed him into the winners' enclosure, the last-mentioned having held off Martin Cullen for fourth place by a short head (or maybe, this being politics, by a neck).
Equally predictable, the Government's stable boy, Seamus Brennan, was left at the starting post, holding his whip. All dressed up with no horse to go to; and maybe because he's the only member of the Government small enough to be a jockey, you had to feel sorry for him.
Unless you were a member of the Opposition. When the Taoiseach acknowledged that Mr Brennan was the big loser in the reshuffle by praising his "indispensable" role as Chief Whip, the massed ranks across the Dail floor sensitively burst out laughing. Labour's Pat Rabbitte, remembering Mr Brennan's contribution to the millennium celebrations, was appalled: "1.1 million candles and that's the respect he gets," he said.
There was more respect for the junior minister Chris Flood, whose resignation "on medical advice" was the only surprise of the day. Along with Eoin Ryan and Mary Hanafin, both promoted to Minister of State, he earned the good wishes of the Opposition, as did the man whose resignation precipitated the reshuffle, David Andrews.
But reshuffles are also occasions for debate on the performance of the Government. And no sooner had the ministerial careers of Mr Ryan and Ms Hanafin taken root than Fine Gael leader John Bruton was nipping them in the bud, announcing that the Government had entered "the autumn of its existence".
Having placed his party on an election footing, Mr Bruton is clearly hoping for an early harvest. But he wasn't yet swinging the scythe yesterday, refusing to prejudge the new appointees, or to engage in the sort of "crass characterisation" that one in particular attracted.
If anyone doubted who he meant, the new Minister for Foreign Affairs - sometimes known as "Biffo" - grinned broadly. Biffo-baiting has been a popular sport at Fine Gael and Labour party conferences, and Ruairi Quinn too was moved to assure us that he would not be engaging in the often "offensive" characterisation of Mr Cowen.
With equal generosity, he offered advice to Micheal Martin in his new health portfolio, telling him never to stand with his back to Charlie McCreevy; and he praised the new Education Minister, Dr Woods, as "the last survivor of the long march" from Jack Lynch's era to the present one.
Then, for the winners, it was the short drive to Aras an Uachtar ain to accept their seals of office. But for poor Seamus Brennan, it was a lonely trip back to the stables; with nothing to look forward to - provided he keeps doing his job well - except another 2 1/2 long years of keeping all the Government's horses penned in.
