A mash-up of bingo hall, pinball and slot arcade, pachinko is hugely popular in Japan. Players sit in crowded rooms hermetically sealed off from the outside world behind a thick wall of noise, smoke and gambler's tension. Hardly the best place to be during a threatened pandemic – yet about 10,000 parlours remain open around the country.
Pachinko typifies the hands-off approach taken by Japan to the spread of Covid-19. The government has repeatedly urged people to avoid confined, poorly ventilated spaces and close-quarter conversations. But pleas to break the chain of infection are falling on deaf ears in restaurants, offices and, above all, on packed trains: Millions of people still commute in Tokyo every day.
Medical experts are now arguing that self-restraint has failed and it is time for the government to shut down Tokyo and other large cities. "I'm very worried," says Kentaro Iwata, an infectious disease specialist at Kobe University. "My worst fear is that what is happening in Wuhan or New York could happen in Japan. We can't allow the status quo to continue."
Abe faced widespread mockery for being out of touch after promising to distribute two washable masks to each of Japan's 50 million households.
Japan's proximity to China meant it was aware of the virus relatively early. Its strategy since has been to zero in on clusters of infections and snuff them out. Health officials have shunned aggressive testing partly to avoid overwhelming hospitals with thousands of people suffering mild symptoms. There are growing signs that this strategy may no longer be working.
Abe's critics are understandably nervous about unleashing emergency powers given Japan's history of wartime authoritarianism.
Japan, with a population of 127 million, has still recorded fewer infections and deaths than Ireland (population 4.8 million). Japan’s 2,800 cases are still a tiny fraction of the one million recorded worldwide. But the number is rising: from roughly 40 in Tokyo in late March to 97 cases on April 2nd. Some experts suspect the actual number is higher because without testing, deaths from coronavirus are not being recorded.
Emergency powers
All week, speculation has been building that the government will call on new emergency powers. Tokyo's governor, Yuriko Koike, has hinted that the capital might have to be locked down unless it can hold the line on the virus. One of Japan's most prominent businessmen, Hiroshi Mikitani, billionaire boss of e-commerce giant Rakuten, added to pressure on prime minister Shinzo Abe in a tweet demanding he declare a state of emergency.
Abe seems to view that as a last resort, relying instead on civic signalling (he now rarely appears in public without a surgical mask). This week he faced widespread mockery for being out of touch after promising to distribute two washable masks to each of Japan's 50 million households. Some speculate he is under pressure from the Japan Business Federation to keep the economy humming.
Abe’s critics are understandably nervous about unleashing emergency powers given Japan’s history of wartime authoritarianism. The new legislation stipulates that he can order a state of emergency if Covid-19 is “rampant”, or threatens to have a major impact on the country. But it is not clear at all what such powers would mean. There is no enforcement mechanism and power is likely to be delegated to local prefectures and municipal authorities.
Disease of numbers
Japan has put off hard choices so far because it has been lucky, says Iwata. “The detection of the beginning of infections was very early.” But Covid-19 is a disease of numbers, he warns. “If you have 10, it is almost nothing, 100 is manageable – 1,000 is extremely difficult to contain and 10,000 it is impossible.” Japan may be reaching that point.
In the meantime, self-restraint is becoming more insistent. This weekend some pachinko operators have even ordered outlets closed in Tokyo. Fans of the pinball derivative say the flashing screens and cacophonous din induce a trance-like state that one commentator labelled “cut-price Zen”. That may be one reason why in a time of magnified stress so many people are reluctant to give it up, whatever the dangers.
