Two centuries ago the gilded halls of today’s Vienna’s chancellery on Ballhausplatz hosted the fabled congress that settled Europe’s post-Napoleonic peace. Today war is on the minds of everyone climbing the stone steps and gathering in the fabled first-floor chandeliered congress hall.
On the podium Austria’s eloquent European affairs minister Karoline Edtstadler is presenting the results of her two-year citizen consultation on the future of Europe – knowing that this future has rarely been less certain.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February has sent shock waves around the world, in particular in Finland and Sweden. With those long-time neutral countries almost certain to apply for Nato membership in the coming days, the club of non-aligned EU member states will soon shrink to just four: Ireland, Cyprus Malta and Austria.*
Almost as quick as chancellor Karl Nehammer’s condemnation of Russia’s attack on Ukraine was his insistence that war would not change Austria as a country that “was, is and will remain neutral”. But can anything be ruled out these days with such an unpredictable Kremlin tenant?
Like Ireland, Austria says it is militarily – but not politically – neutral in this conflict. It has supplied humanitarian assistance for Ukraine but not arms, and Vienna has vowed to boost its own military spending to 1 per cent of gross domestic product – an extra €1.6 billion annually – to €4.3 billion.
In a dynamic European security landscape Edtstadler sees a new reason for non-Nato EU member states to drive on common EU security and defence policy. She is encouraged by the so-called EU “security compass”, agreed before the war in Ukraine, with consensus far beyond what she thought possible.
“We have agreed to invest in security together, make our systems compatible and push more synergies – not just in cyber-criminality but also hybrid and physical threats,” said Edtstadler, of Austria’s ruling centre-right People’s Party (ÖVP). “There are some areas where member states will never go, so the time has come now to filter what else is possible, and what not.”
Vienna is watching closely – and critically – a push by some to expedite Ukraine’s EU membership application given the accession ambitions of its west Balkan neighbours.
“Making promises to some and not keeping promises made to others – with that we lose credibility,” she said.
For critical voices such as the Austrian philosopher Rudolf Burger, neutrality became an integral part of the postwar nation's "self-deception as a way of life"
As in Ireland, Nato is a phantom that reappears only occasionally in Austrian public debate. In 2001, Wolfgang Schüssel, the then ÖVP chancellor, floated the idea of alliance membership as the next logical step after EU accession six years previously. One of his key advisers at the time went even further, warning: “A neutral or non-aligned state, if attacked, is alone.”
Asked by The Irish Times on Monday if that assertion still applies in 2022, the wily ex-chancellor dodged the question by insisting that Austria’s neutrality should not be confused with passivity or non-action.
“We can deliver weapons, offer fly-over rights, transport of troops through Austria, we can even join military action to protect the EU, that is all constitutionally possible while remaining neutral,” Schüssel said. “We now have to ask further security questions with the EU and continue that debate.”
Despite not being a member Austria has close ties to Nato, with a total of 25,000 soldiers participating in six Nato missions.
But, as Schüssel and others have discovered over the years, Austrian security debates always stumble over the deep roots of Austria’s postwar neutrality.
A cornerstone of modern Austrian identity, its 1955 neutrality law restored the country’s sovereignty at the end of a diplomatic high wire act, in particular with Moscow.
Vienna leaders agreed that – in return for the withdrawal of the last Russian troops – Austria would remain neutral and non-aligned in perpetuity and allow no foreign powers establish military foothold in its territory.
Cold War realities muddied the waters somewhat. Austria’s frontline status between the two blocs saw the US funnel in money to build up Austria’s military capabilities – and its technical ability to listen in on eastern bloc neighbours.
Declassified Nato documents from 1955 reveal the extent of co-operation with the western alliance in case of attack from the east. These include sharing with Nato troop manoeuvre plans that were designed to maintain what Austria’s then military chief-of-staff called “the appearance of neutrality”.
For critical voices such as the Austrian philosopher Rudolf Burger, neutrality became an integral part of the postwar nation’s “self-deception as a way of life”.
But while the invasion of Ukraine has prompted soul-searching in Austria, in particular its dependency on Russia oil, no senior politicians are even considering a shift on neutrality or Nato membership.
Challenges
“We’ve been conditioned all our lives that neutrality is part of our DNA and has brought UN institutions and more,” said Karl, a 23-year-old sipping drinks after the chancellery event.
His companion Anna suggests that, after the pandemic and years trapped in the election cycle, there is little capacity for abstract debates given more pressing challenges such as inflation.
“Someone cannot afford to worry about neutrality and military non-alignment,” she said, “if their electricity bill has jumped from €150 to €400.”
Last month, on a visit to Vienna, President Michael D Higgins warned: “We must not allow ourselves to be mired in militarism.”
That message is echoed by Prof Heinz Gärnter, the grand old man of Austrian peace studies, in a Viennese coffee house.
He fears Nato membership applications from Finland and Sweden will set in motion a dynamic that will lead to further polarisation, a new Cold War or worse.
“Putin has brought war and bloc-thinking back to Europe, but I refuse to believe that Putin’s reality will become the norm once more, that Putin decides how the future of Europe will look,” said Prof Gärnter of the University of Vienna. “But if that does happen traditional neutrality will win in value again. Neutral countries will be needed, and we will be happy we stayed neutral.”
*Article amended at 10.30am on May 12th, 2022
