The Netherlands became the latest country to go to the ballot box on EU-related matters as Dutch citizens voted in a referendum on a proposed trade deal between the European Union and Ukraine.
Exit polls last night suggested that turnout might have not reached the 30 per cent needed for the referendum to pass. This is likely to be welcomed by the Dutch government , which has grown increasingly concerned in recent weeks about the prospect of a No vote.
The plebiscite was the first since the Netherlands rejected the EU constitution in 2005, a defining moment for EU integration.
The Netherlands' resounding rejection of a European constitution just days after French voters had also rejected the proposal was a blow to the European Union. The then French president, Jacques Chirac, admitted that the result had exposed "questions and concerns about the development of the European project".
Yesterday’s ballot was not so fundamental for the EU, as voters were asked their view on the more obscure matter of a proposed association agreement with Ukraine. But its significance for the EU was important.
Terms of legal text
While ostensibly the referendum was about the terms of a 2,000-plus-page legal text governing relations with Ukraine, in reality the vote is being seen as a barometer of public feeling towards the European Union.
The decision to hold the referendum emerged from a grassroots online movement, GeenStijl. The eurosceptic group garnered the minimum 300,000 signatures needed to call a referendum under a new law introduced last year, forcing the Dutch government to hold a ballot.
For GeenStijl and others, the aim of the referendum was clear: to highlight the issue of democratic accountability in the EU, and espouse the notion that citizens should have more control over the decisions that affect them.
The right-wing Dutch Freedom Party, led by Geert Wilders, has been upfront about what it believes is the reason to vote against the referendum: a vote against equals a vote against prime minister Mark Rutte and "the Brussels elite", its website stated.
But while the referendum question was in many ways arbitrary, voters were asked to deliver their verdict on a matter that could have serious ramifications for Ukraine.
After years of talks, the Ukrainian government finally signed an association agreement with the EU in March 2014. This came just months after president Viktor Yanukovych pulled out of the deal under pressure from Moscow.
That decision sparked the Maidan protests in Kiev and Russia's incursion into Crimea and eastern Ukraine.
Despite the symbolism of the referendum topic, GeenStijl and other No campaigners focused their arguments on the substance of the agreement.
Unstable Ukraine
Many argued that the association deal would lead to EU membership for Ukraine. Others highlighted the political instability and corruption in Ukraine, now grappling with a highly unstable government as a frozen conflict takes root in the east of the country.
The referendum topic has a particular resonance for the Netherlands, following the downing of Malaysian Airways flight MH17, which killed all 298 people on board, including 193 Dutch citizens.
Despite accusations that the flight was shot down by pro-Russian separatists, the referendum campaign has been dogged by conspiracy theories alleging a Ukrainian cover-up.
The referendum has caused alarm in Ukraine, where many pro-West citizens see the agreement as offering a lifeline to their embattled country which continues to fall under the shadow of Russia.
The prospect of an agreement floundering because of the Dutch after being ratified by 27 of the EU’s 28 member states is seen as a cruel blow post-Maidan, though in reality the provisional association agreement reached in 2014 may still remain in place.
Still, some form of political compromise will likely be found on the association agreement issue. Of more concern for the EU will be the political fallout from the vote, two and a half months ahead of the British referendum on EU membership.
Growing disconnect
Just as Denmark’s rejection of EU justice legislation in its December referendum revealed a growing disconnect between citizens and the European Union, the Dutch vote is seen as an important measure of how the European public sees the EU.
Worrying for those campaigning for Britain to remain in the European Union, the Dutch referendum showed that the nuances and details of the referendum question was a sideshow to the more visceral question of citizens’ relationship with the European Union.
With the British referendum just 11 weeks away, the Dutch result may be a worrying sign for the European Union of things to come.