With the return of the Greek crisis, many in Berlin viewed Chancellor Angela Merkel as the German politician with the most to lose.
Predictably enough, her conditional backing in Brussels for a third Greek package incurred the wrath of the Bild tabloid on Wednesday.
But as Athens uncertainty enters its endgame, it may yet be her coalition partner, Social Democrat (SPD) leader Sigmar Gabriel, who comes unstuck.
The deputy chancellor prompted a mini-revolt this week among senior SPD figures over his harsh line towards Greece after the No vote in Sunday's referendum, forcing him into a rapid reversal with his authority undermined.
The SPD leader had warned his inner circle to remain silent on the result until they agreed a line at their regular Monday meeting. They were surprised, then, when Gabriel ignored his own advice to tell a Berlin newspaper’s Monday edition that the Greeks, with their No vote, had “torn down the last bridge” of European solidarity making fresh talks “hard to imagine”.
Leaked speaking notes suggest he planned more of the same for his SPD press conference after Monday’s meeting. Countries who follow national interests above others would bring about the “end of the euro zone”, his notes said, and Sunday’s Greek vote meant for the SPD that “there can be no new billion-euro aid package”.
Sensing disaster, his SPD inner circle told Gabriel in polite but clear language they were following a different line and a chastened party leader went before the press with more conciliatory language.
But the damage is done, say SPD officials, who accuse Gabriel of damaging party credibility and alienating traditional centre-left voters into the bargain.
Political quandary
The episode is indicative of a wider domestic political quandary for the SPD and its leader. Despite pushing through key election promises in Berlin’s grand coalition, from a minimum wage to a rent brake, the SPD is flatlining in polls.
On the resurgent Greek crisis, as throughout the crisis, the SPD is a house divided. Left-wingers believe they should be competing with Syriza’s Berlin allies, Die Linke. But, after savaging Greek voters, Gabriel appeared to be an attempt to out-Merkel Merkel.
For political analysts in Berlin, Monday’s outbursts are the latest symptom of an SPD identity crisis dating back to the 2008 financial crisis.
Since then the party has been in grand coalition, then opposition and now grand coalition again. Its central messages on bank rescues and EU bailouts have changed at least twice in that time, depending on whether they were on the Bundestag government bench and whether the party’s left-wing or centrist camps had the upper hand.
Even in bailout-critical phases, when the SPD demanded stimulus measures to balance austerity, it has never challenged Merkel’s narrative of the euro crisis as a debt crisis caused by peripheral profligacy, to be corrected by reforms and austerity measures.
"Now Gabriel's noticed that, since 2011/2012, he's driven the SPD down the wrong line and is at a dead end," said Dr Gero Neugebrauer, a seasoned political scientist in Berlin. "The party discussed [the euro crisis] nationally, neglected to co-ordinate with European Socialists."
Gabriel’s recent outbursts bode ill for his hopes to reinvent his party ahead of the 2017 federal election. Its last outing in 2013 was a confusing mix of a leftist programme fronted by SPD right-winger Peer Steintrück. Now Gabriel, the likely face of the 2017 campaign, appears anxious to revisit the third way policies of his political mentor, Gerhard Schröder.
‘Wor
king middle’
Gabriel has drafted a new paper,
Strong Ideas for Germany 2025
, arguing the SPD needs to target not just centrist floating voters but the squeezed “working middle”.
Rather than emphasise social justice, the paper promises “inner and outer security”, “patriotic self-confidence” and taxes that are “not high but fair”.
SPD left-wingers are worried that Gabriel will fail in the battle for the political centre now occupied by Merkel. Senior SPD figures are non-committal, describing the paper as a good basis to open a strategic debate. Where the party and its debate will conclude – and whether the leader will still be Sigmar Gabriel – is less certain.