If Donald Trump wasn’t US president, then Horst Seehofer would probably top Angela Merkel’s most-hated-man list.
In her 18 years as chairwoman of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), and 13 years as chancellor, Merkel has locked swords with Seehofer more times than anyone else in German politics.
It is the ultimate sibling rivalry, with Seehofer the decade-old head of the CDU’s sister party, the Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU). Both are centre-right, catch-all groupings but the CSU is more Catholic and conservative, and has transformed its southern German state into an economic powerhouse in seven decades of almost continuous rule.
But CSU hegemony is under threat in October’s state election thanks to the rise of the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), resurgent since the 2015 refugee crisis brought about 1.4 million people into Germany – mostly via Bavaria.
Ambivalence
After an initially euphoric welcome, a growing ambivalence and even outright hostility to Merkel’s open-door policy – increasingly within her own party – has put wind in the sails of the CSU.
For three years it demanded Merkel’s CDU take a tougher line on the migration question, only to fall into line behind her sullenly. Now it is determined to see off the AfD by reclaiming its law-and-order mantle – whatever the cost.
Next Monday, Seehofer is threatening to push through tougher refugee rules against Merkel’s wishes. That would force her to fire him, collapse the government and leave the CDU/CSU alliance beyond repair.
But that worst-case scenario, an early election in which the only beneficiary would be the AfD, has prompted the CDU to hang tough. Seehofer is dreaming, they say, if he expects to seal Germany’s 800km green border with Austria. Even if he succeeded, Merkel has warned of setting off the kind of humanitarian chain reaction avoided by keeping the borders open in 2015.
Public opinion
Three years on, however, public opinion in Germany has hardened after terrorist attacks, brutal rapes and murders with asylum seeker perpetrators and suspects.
Merkel is arguing for two more weeks to agree a refugee quota deal in Brussels. But such a deal looks unlikely and the CSU is tired of waiting, pointing to a previous deal that resettled just a quarter of the promised 120,000 people. They want to follow the example of France, which expelled more than 85,000 asylum seekers last year, and are emboldened by Austrian talk of an “axis of the willing” to push a tougher migration line.
After years as squabbling political siblings, the CSU says this is Seehofer’s “endgame” against Merkel. If Beckett is any guide, one or both may end up in a dustbin.