The EU’s current stasis is well summed up by Germany’s election-night truism: “Nach der Wahl ist vor der Wahl” – after the vote is before the vote.
Though Europe's conservative grouping, the European People's Party (EPP), lost support on May 25th, it finished ahead of its rivals. But Jean- Claude Juncker, the EPP's leading man or "Spitzenkandidat", is far from a shoe-in as the European Commission president.
With London blocking him and other capitals lukewarm, the only thing the German, Dutch, British and Swedish leaders agreed this week outside Stockholm was that the "Spitzenkandidat" riddle was best solved after agreeing a general reform package for Europe or "Gesamtpaket". Embracing a second German compound word to end the roadblock caused by the first is a sign that German chancellor Angela Merkel is at work.
The German leader is at her most effective when facing interlinked, knotty problems that demand compromise on all sides. Finding a deal that makes everyone look good – and her most of all – is her trademark, but predicting the final elements is rarely possible. While she is sounding out others, Merkel never shows her hand.
Thus the difficulty in gauging her true support for Juncker. She had little interest in the Spitzenkandidat system in general, predicting – correctly, as it turned out – that it was a recipe for post-election tension. Her disinterest in Juncker in particular was clear from a campaign in which they shared just two joint appearances.
After some hesitation, she has come out as a vocal Juncker supporter. Her aides insist Merkel’s loyalty to the EPP candidate is real and more in the “European spirit” than British prime minister David Cameron’s anti-Juncker campaign, a hand they warn London would be well advised not to overplay.
For Berlin, though, Juncker is still part of a Gesamtpaket, which will involve EU leaders agreeing on, and handing the future commission president, a to-do list of institutional reforms for the next five years.
Not everyone believes Merkel’s backing for Juncker. Some Berlin cynics suggest that, based on her record, Juncker may yet be a negotiating chip to be offered up for a compromise deal, but at a high price.
Like other leaders, Merkel has her own domestic balancing act to perform. Six months into its third term, her Christian Democratic Union (CDU) feels it is being overshadowed by its second-time grand-coalition partner, the Social Democrats (SPD). After swallowing one bitter pill – the SPD minimum wage – dumping Juncker could be the final straw.
It will be interesting to see how Merkel receives Danish prime minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt next week in Berlin. The 47-year-old ticks many boxes of the classic commission compromise president: three years of leadership experience in a small EU state and a restrained, neutral persona.
Thorning-Schmidt speaks fluent English and French and, most importantly, the Social Democrat speaks a language on European reform and fiscal sustainability that chimes with EPP politicians. Appointing a woman allows everyone to look progressive and would help bridge both her "wrong" party credentials and non-euro Denmark being out of the loop on single-currency matters.
If Merkel’s support stays firm, the veteran Juncker may yet make it. But, now more than ever, the next commission president will know who installed them in Brussels.