Ukraine is voting for a new president today, but the crucial election faces severe disruption in eastern regions where government forces are fighting pro-Russian rebels.
Polls suggest confectionary billionaire Petro Poroshenko will win, but may not take the 50 percent of votes needed to avoid a June 15th run-off. His strongest challenger is likely to be former premier Yulia Tymoshenko.
Both are determined to weaken Russian influence over Ukraine and take their country towards the European Union, following the revolution that ousted Kremlin-backed president Viktor Yanukovich in February.
In the wake of the uprising, Moscow annexed Crimea and armed separatists in the eastern Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk seized official buildings, declared independence and requested to join Russia, which they border.
Across both provinces, the rebels have in recent days stormed local election commission buildings, seizing voter lists and official stamps and threatening staff, many of whom are now too afraid to oversee the election.
“We intend to make sure that voting does not take place here on our territory. If necessary we will revert to the use of force,” said Denis Pushilin, leader of the self-declared Donetsk People’s Republic.
“We have the right to do so because our countrymen are dying here every day,” he said, in reference to frequent battles between rebels and government troops.
With gunmen on the streets of many towns and manning checkpoints on major roads, and with news of shootings, beatings and kidnappings rife, many people will be too scared to vote today – even if they could find a local polling station in operation.
The Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe has more than 1,000 observers in Ukraine for the election, but a source told the Reuters news agency on condition of anonymity that there would be “no election monitors in the city of Donetsk”, which has about one million residents.
“There’s an atmosphere of terror,” he said of conditions facing electoral officials. “We’ve found many officials sending us terrified SMSs.”
Many people in mostly Russian-speaking eastern regions reject a new Kiev government that does not include their representatives, and comprises only politicians who favour closer ties with the EU and the US over Moscow.
But while support appears to be strong for sweeping decentralisation of power from Kiev to the regions, there have been no big demonstrations in favour of the rebels and their independence bid and request to join Russia.
Kiev’s new government says Russia is fomenting the violence and training “terrorists” to send into Ukraine to prevent the country becoming stable and moving out of Moscow’s orbit.
“It’s not easy to prepare and conduct elections when huge financial, political, and military resources are used to disrupt them,” said Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk in a pre-ballot television address.
“It will be an expression of the will of Ukrainians from the west, east, north and south. The choice will be fair and free.”
“I want to assure our fellow countrymen from the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, who will not be able to vote because of the war, that criminals won’t terrorise your land for long,” he added.
Russia has made ambiguous statements about the vote, with officials initially saying that unrest in the east would make it “pointless”, but more recently pledging to judge the election by its conduct and to work with Ukraine’s next president.
President Vladimir Putin said yesterday that "strictly speaking, under the current constitution, it's impossible to hold an election" because Mr Yanukovich, who is now in Russia, "wasn't removed from power using constitutional methods."
He added, however, that Moscow would “respect the choice of the Ukrainian people and will be working with the authorities formed on the basis of this election.”
Russia’s more conciliatory tone, and its promise to withdraw troops concentrated near Ukraine’s border, appears to be linked to a US and EU threat to impose far tougher sanctions on Moscow if it disrupts the election.
Mr Putin also appears to be determined to distance himself from the rebels, and yesterday he again said Ukraine was gripped by civil war. Kiev blames the unrest on Russia and a small number of eastern Ukrainian allies who include known criminals.
The Kremlin claims the massive uprising against Mr Yanukovich was orchestrated and funded by Washington, and that Russia’s interests in its traditional “sphere of influence” are being disregarded.
“Where is the guarantee that, after the forceful change of power, Ukraine will not tomorrow end up in Nato?” Mr Putin said.
“We hear only one answer, as if on a record: Every nation has a right determine on its own the security system in which it wants to live, and that doesn’t concern you.”
Mr Putin said he hoped the Ukraine crisis would not cause a new cold war between east and west, and denied that Russia had expansionist ambitions.
“They try to stick this label on us - a label that we are trying to restore an empire, the Soviet Union, make everyone subordinate,” he said.
“This absolutely does not correspond to reality.”
