This weekend the European Union and United Kingdom crashed through the latest deadline set to agree a trade relationship that must be in place in less than two weeks’ time to avoid disrupting billions of euro in trade.
When is the true last moment for a deal to be struck?
The only iron deadline is December 31st. Britain’s currently favourable terms with the EU will end after that day and cannot be extended, as London declined its last chance to request an extension this summer.
Talks cannot run up to midnight on New Year’s Eve without risking a de facto no-deal however. This is because after a deal is signed, there are steps that must take place before it can come into effect.
In Britain this process is shorter, requiring just a vote in Westminster plus the required preparation by customs, etc. In the EU, the deal must be translated into different languages, scrutinised by national governments and MEPs, and then voted on in the European Parliament.
It’s possible that it will need to be ratified in national parliaments as well, though member states governments could choose to bypass this step if they agree so unanimously. And due to the time constraints, this could only take place after January 1st.
MEPs initially demanded that the deal be agreed by late October, to allow for adequate scrutiny and also to give time for citizens and businesses to prepare for the changes it will set out.
Last week came the ultimatum: the leaders of the parties in the European Parliament issued a statement to say they would refuse to hold a vote on a deal if it arrived after midnight Brussels time on Sunday, December 20th.
Yet talks are expected to continue on Monday, December 21st. So what does that mean?
If a deal came early on Monday, it’s possible that the European Parliament could make an allowance, and go ahead with a vote pencilled in for the week of December 28th.
If it refused, national governments have the power to decide to provisionally implement a deal from January 1st without the European Parliament holding a vote. MEPs would vote on it later in the month, effectively putting the stamp of approval on what was already in place.
Furious
This would not be politically easy: MEPs would be furious, particularly at the European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, who explicitly promised the European Parliament she would not allow the provisional implementation of trade deals without MEPs holding a vote.
But it’s unlikely that this would outweigh national governments’ desire to avoid the severe economic damage that a no-deal would cause.
Whatever happens, it is broadly expected that a resolution should come imminently. Negotiators have families, and the British team have now been living out of suitcases in Brussels for considerably longer than the time for which they packed. Some had already passed through security at the Eurostar terminal on their way home to London before they were summoned back to the negotiating table last week.
It’s almost certain that they will be on their way home before Christmas on Friday, though now that Belgium has suspended travel with the UK, including the Eurostar, they may have to be collected by government jet.
