Prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu hopes his controversial speech later today before the United States Congress, in which he will warn against the emerging nuclear deal between the world powers and Iran, will be the pivotal moment in the Israeli election campaign.
With only two weeks before Israelis vote to decide if Netanyahu will get a third consecutive term as prime minister, the polls predict a close contest. Netanyahu's Likud party trails by one or two seats to the centre-left Zionist Camp, headed jointly by Labor's Yitzhak Herzog and former justice minister Tzipi Livni, but the right-religious bloc maintains an overall lead over a potential centre-left alliance.
Throughout the campaign, Likud’s strategy has been to divert attention from bread-and-butter domestic issues and portray Netanyahu as an experienced leader on the world stage. He is presented as the only candidate who can defend Israel against ever-present regional threats, with the prospect of a nuclear Iran topping the list.
Over recent weeks, however, the strategy has been failing and Likud has dropped in the polls, coinciding with reports of the lavish lifestyle of the Netanyahu family and the excessive spending of state funds at the prime minister’s office. This week, hundreds of Israelis pitched tents in Tel Aviv, protesting against the spiralling cost of apartments.
Biblical quotes
Netanyahu hopes his speech to Congress, delivered in perfect American-accented English with key soundbites, and probably choice biblical quotes as well, will succeed in diverting attention from domestic woes and persuade large numbers of floating voters to back the leader who has made preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear bomb his priority.
Before leaving for Washington, Netanyahu, who sees himself in a similar role to Winston Churchill in the 1930s, said he was going as a representative not only of Israel but of the entire Jewish people. He described his trip as a “fateful and even historic” mission.
“I feel deep and genuine concern for the security of all the people of Israel,” he said. “I will do everything in my ability to secure our future.”
A source in the prime minister’s entourage said members of Congress were not familiar with the details of the agreement being worked out with Iran, and it was Netanyahu’s duty to warn them of the dangers. However, the speech has worsened the bad chemistry between President Obama and Netanyahu and has led to a crisis in bilateral ties.
The invitation to Netanyahu to address a special session of both houses of Congress was extended by Republican House speaker John Boehner, who did not consult Obama in advance. Forty Democratic members of Congress are boycotting the speech.
Obama's national security adviser, Susan Rice, said Netanyahu's visit was "destructive to the fabric" of the US-Israel relationship and endangered the US's traditional bipartisan support for the Jewish state. For many Americans, it appears that Netanyahu, by siding with Republicans against the White House, is intervening in US domestic politics.
Netanyahu’s opponents accuse him of jeopardising Israel’s vital partnership with the US for electoral gain. “There is no dispute about the Iranian threat, but the speech will not help and not change anything, but could cause damage,” Herzog said. “Netanyahu is destroying our American alliance for a few votes at the ballot box.”
Retired generals and intelligence chiefs have also weighed in against the visit. Former Mossad chief Meir Dagan, who masterminded covert Israeli efforts to derail the Iranian nuclear drive, warned that Netanyahu was single-handedly motivating the Americans into rushing to reach an agreement.
“The person that has caused Israel the most strategic damage when it comes to the Iranian issue is the prime minister,” he said. “Congress will applaud Netanyahu, but the power is in the hands of the president. An Israeli prime minister who enters into a confrontation with the US administration needs to consider the risks. We shouldn’t be gnawing away at our relations with our most important ally, certainly not in public and certainly not by getting involved in American domestic politics. This is not the kind of behaviour one expects from a prime minister.”
The trip to Washington was clearly a gambit. If the Israeli public perceive Netanyahu as standing up for Israel’s vital interests, in defiance of a hostile US president, it could be a gamble that pays off big time for him. But if they believe he risked Israel’s relations with its vital ally in a desperate bid to win votes, it could backfire and tip the election against him.
All eyes will be on the polls in the coming days.