The second round of talks on the Syrian crisis taking place in Vienna could be more positive than the initial October 30th session because the political landscape has changed over the past two weeks.
While US secretary of state John Kerry has said prospects for the talks are uncertain, he also observed that "time and turbulence" could create new possibilities.
The "turbulence" to which he referred has taken place on the field of battle in Syria and Iraq. In Syria, the Russian-Iranian-Syrian army alliance has made significant gains in fighting against Islamic State south of Aleppo, taking over villages and towns and ending the IS siege of Kweires air base east of the city, which is divided into government-controlled and insurgent-held sectors.
Strategic gains
In Iraq, US-backed Kurdish militias have routed Islamic State fighters in the strategic town of
Sinjar
. The town straddles highway 47, which connects the de facto IS capital of Raqqa in Syria with Mosul, Iraq’s second city captured by IS in June 2014.
The Kurds have not only secured this vital supply route but have taken over secondary roads and desert tracks to deprive Raqqa and Mosul of essential goods. They have also tried to seal the Turkish border to halt the flow of weapons, funds and fighters to IS, al-Qaeda's Jabhat al-Nusra and other insurgents.
These battlefield advances could strengthen the US, Russia, and Iran, the powers seeking to end the war that has engulfed Syria and Iraq.
However, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the expatriate opposition coalition are determined to maintain military pressure on Syria's president Bashar al-Assad until his army is defeated or he is forced to stand down.
On Wednesday, working groups tasked with identifying "terrorists", defining the legitimate opposition and identifying humanitarian issues began preparations for the talks. But major gaps between Riyadh and Moscow remain. Saudi Arabia seeks to add fundamentalist factions to the list of legitimate armed opposition groups; Russia regards almost all Assad's opponents as "terrorists".
The transfer of power and the roles of Assad and the opposition are key items on the agenda. A period of six to eight months has been suggested for the transition, but not agreed. A Russian proposal for a new constitution and elections within 18 months, without mentioning Assad’s future, has been rejected by the US and its allies.
Deciding which insurgent groups are "terrorist" is the most contentious issue to be considered at Vienna. Although IS and Nusra have been classified as "terrorist" by the UN Security Council, they continue to be aided by Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey, and Nusra has partnered operations with US-allied insurgents, making decisions delicate.
Pressure to act
Russia’s entry into the Syrian conflict, the intensified US bombing campaign in Syria and Iraq, and reverses sustained by IS and other insurgent factions could encourage patrons to act before their proxies have been weakened.
In a bid to defuse the regional sectarian rivalry fuelling the war, Oman has offered to mediate between Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shia Iran. Oman's foreign minister Yusif bin Alawi, who recently met Assad, said the Vienna talks provided new prospects of a solution.
The US and Russia are to chair the meeting. It includes ministers from Iran, China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, France, and Italy; EU foreign affairs chief Federica Mogherini and representatives of the Arab League and the Organisation of Islamic Co-operation.
Neither the Syrian government nor the opposition has been invited.